Standard Chartered Bank predicts: ETFs and favorable policies may overturn Bitcoin's traditional halving cycle
Standard Chartered Bank's latest report points out that under the combined effect of multiple factors, Bitcoin may break the historical cycle. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at the bank, emphasized in a research report on July 2 that record ETF inflows, potential policy shifts by the Federal Reserve, and accelerated entry of sovereign institutions will drive Bitcoin to its strongest half-year performance in history by the end of 2025.
Technically, Bitcoin is currently in a critical position. According to TradingView market data, Bitcoin's daily line fluctuates in the range of $108,618-109,174, with the middle track of the Bollinger Band at $105,890 and the upper track of $109,945 forming short-term resistance. Although the MACD indicator is in a bullish arrangement (fast line 765.26, slow line 478.31), the column has shrunk to 286.94, indicating that the upward momentum has weakened.
Standard Chartered Bank maintains its target price of $200,000 at the end of the year and updates its forecast for the third quarter to $135,000. The report also pointed out that the record of ETFs and companies purchasing a total of 245,000 BTC in the second quarter may be broken. This explosive growth in institutional demand, coupled with the regulatory certainty enhanced by the GENIUS Act, is reshaping the market structure of Bitcoin.
It is worth noting that the report believes that the traditional halving cycle theory has come to an end. Although from a historical perspective, Bitcoin usually experiences a cyclical correction 18 months after the halving (September-October this year).
However, Kendrick believes that the intervention of new sources of demand such as ETF fund inflows, potential policy shifts by the Federal Reserve, and accelerated entry of sovereign institutions in this cycle may break this rule.
Finally, Kendrick predicts that the market will resume its rise after a brief volatility, and advises investors to "fasten their seat belts" and prepare for violent fluctuations.
In general, the market currently needs to pay attention to two key variables: one is the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy, especially the leadership changes that may be brought about by the election; the other is the actual purchasing behavior of sovereign institutions, which will become a new demand engine after corporate purchases.
Do you agree with Standard Chartered Bank's view that the Bitcoin halving cycle theory is no longer applicable? Do you think ETF inflows, Fed policy changes, and sovereign agency involvement will disrupt this traditional halving cycle theory in the market?
