Arthur Hayes: Trump's policies may lead to severe short-term market fluctuations, but Bitcoin prices are bullish in the long term.

In his latest article, Arthur Hayes pointed out that despite his optimistic outlook on #比特币 and digital assets in the long run, there may be a temporary contraction in dollar liquidity in the short term due to Trump's 'Great Beautiful Plan'.

He stated that the plan will raise the debt ceiling, and the Treasury may replenish the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance from $364 billion to $850 billion by issuing debt, which could trigger a $486 billion liquidity contraction.

Hayes predicts that before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the end of August, the market may trade sideways or decline slightly. If the TGA replenishment negatively affects dollar liquidity, Bitcoin prices could drop to the $90,000 to $95,000 range; if the impact is limited, Bitcoin may fluctuate within the $100,000 range but struggle to break through the historical high of $112,000.

He expects that by early September, after the debt ceiling issue is resolved, the market bulls will regain an advantage as monetary creation accelerates. Bitcoin could potentially rise tenfold to $1 million before 2028, while the Nasdaq 100 index may soar to 100,000 points.

Although overall signs are optimistic, the SEC also pointed out that the ADX value is 21.51, indicating that trend strength is still relatively weak at the moment. Despite the current bullish pattern, the lower ADX reading reminds us that momentum can shift quickly, and traders should closely monitor any changes in trend strength.

Currently, the market needs to focus on two key variables: first, the direction of Federal Reserve policy, particularly the leadership changes that may arise from the departure of the Federal Reserve Chairman; second, the actual purchasing behavior of sovereign institutions, which will become a new demand engine following corporate purchases.

Although the market is facing a divergence between short-term adjustments and long-term improvements, institutional investors can seize the opportunity to build positions around $90,000 to $95,000, while retail investors must pay special attention to leverage risks, especially during the policy window period in August and September, which may intensify market fluctuations.

At the same time, as the 'GENIUS Act' brings clarity to regulations and sovereign funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to a value storage tool in the digital age, solidifying its long-term value reassessment foundations, while short-term fluctuations may present good opportunities for value investors to enter the market.