Surprise! ETH is suffocated under 2586 resistance, the battle between bulls and bears will determine life and death tonight
Precise Market Analysis
Current Price Positioning: ETH is currently reported at 2561.17, stuck between the 30-day moving average and the high-pressure zone
Key Levels: Intraday High 2586.15, Defensive Low 2555.25
Volume Warning: Latest volume is 531,400 hands, breaking below the 5-day/10-day average volume line by more than 50%, indicative of a "low volume" wait-and-see signal
Pressure Validation
The three touches of the 2586 area in the chart have all been suppressed, forming a downward trend line with the June 25 high of 2879, making 2586 a critical level for bulls
On-chain Undercurrents
Whale monitoring shows: Over 1500 ETH sell orders accumulated in the 2580-2586 range, confirming the K-line's rise and fall
Core Contradiction
The current dilemma is:
Macroeconomic Drag: The strengthening dollar suppresses risk assets, with BTC leading the decline at 0.21%
Technical Stalemate: MACD barely crosses above the zero line, but volume does not follow, akin to "revving in neutral"
Expectation Game: Grayscale ETF discount narrows to -5%, but SEC listing date remains uncertain
Historical Reflection
Referring to the June 19 trend: Similarly, volume shrank to the 500,000 hands level, followed by a three-day oscillation between 2500-2580 before breaking down. If there is still no volume breakout tomorrow, beware of a pullback to 2520
Hook Strategy
Tonight's monitoring focuses on three elements:
1. If there is a volume breakout above 2586.15, chase the rise with a stop loss set at 2570
2. If 2555.25 breaks with volume, prepare to buy at 2530/2520 levels
3. If Grayscale ETF suddenly reveals its listing schedule, immediately chase in at market price
Operation Motto
1. Follow the breakout at 2586, withdraw if 2555 breaks with volume
2. Watch more and act less during sideways movement, save bullets for when the SEC fires the starting gun!
Follow Guoxing Trends, revealing the underlying insights, staying calm in both bull and bear markets.
