Basic information: This token is called $ICNT, with a total of 1 billion tokens, and only 18.3% of the first batch is released for circulation. It will be listed on the Binance Alpha section at 6 PM tonight (July 3) and contract trading will start at 9 PM.
The disparity in costs is a core risk point:
Institutional heavyweight: Invested 11 million USD early on, acquired 21.5% of the tokens, which calculates to a cost of just 0.05 USD per token. Based on the first batch of circulating supply, the 'cost market value' of their tokens is only 9.3 million USD.
Node major holder: Invested 13 million USD, acquired 20% of the tokens, cost 0.075 USD per token. The 'cost market value' of the first batch of circulating tokens is approximately 13.7 million USD.
Project party's asking price: They claim the total valuation is 470 million USD, which means each token needs to sell for 0.47 USD!
Here's the problem: Institutional cost is 0.05, node cost is 0.075, and the project party wants to sell for 0.47? There's almost a 9 times and 6 times difference in between! Based on the costs of institutions and nodes, the total 'base market value' of the first circulating batch is just over 20 million USD, but according to the project party's pricing, the circulating market value skyrockets to over 86 million USD! This bubble is clearly enormous.
Project party tells a story (revenue):
They say they can earn 7 million USD in a year now, and expect to earn 32 million USD next year.
Based on earning 32 million next year, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 15, the total valuation of 470 million USD seems plausible. BUT! The key is that the current bubble is just too large; relying on 'future' projections can't sustain the current price. The token price is driven by expectations, but those expectations are too far from current costs, posing extremely high risks.
How much can retail investors hold? Is the selling pressure large?
The token listing activity rewards account for about 4%, with a small amount distributed at a time, gradually.
2.5% of the node portion has been unlocked, and they may sell at any time.
Guoxing's viewpoint: Looking only at the short term, there are indeed not many tokens that retail investors can sell directly, and the 2.5% from nodes represents potential selling pressure. If the project party/whales want to 'maintain' the opening price, they may not crash it too badly in the short term, and might even set an 'appealing' opening price. But this is like dancing on the edge of a cliff!
Bull-bear strategy prediction:
'GPS script' warning! I highly suspect it will follow the old path of $GPS: high FDV opening to attract attention -> whales temporarily control and pump up -> then... the scythe swings down, diving from a high position! Why?
Core logic: The costs for institutions and major nodes are too low; as long as the opening price is far above this cost, it is pure profit for them! They have strong motivation and enough chips to cash out after driving the price up. The company may indeed make money in the future, but that is a different matter from whether the token price will crash in the short term! The token price in the short term is completely dominated by chip costs and the intentions of the whales.
Opportunities and risks coexist in the crypto space; staying alert and finding the right timing is key. I've also discovered a project with huge short-term upside potential! If you want to follow along, tap the profile picture to keep up with me, sharing for free!