The deadline for tariffs is approaching. Will Trump’s 'extreme pressure' strategy return? How will the cryptocurrency market respond to the 'black swan'?
【Core Viewpoints】
If Trump returns to power, it is highly likely he will replicate the 'tariffs + rhetoric' extreme pressure strategy, leading to a surge in global market risk aversion. For the cryptocurrency market, this is a short-term negative but may be a positive in the medium to long term.
【Market Sentiment】
1. Panic Group: Worried about a repeat of the 2018 trade war, U.S. stocks, A-shares, and cryptocurrencies may plummet simultaneously.
2. Speculative Group: Betting in advance on the 'gold in chaotic times' logic, Bitcoin may become a hedging alternative.
3. Onlookers: Believe Trump’s rhetoric is 'loud but little action', ultimately leading to a 'negotiation while fighting' scenario like in the past, with market fluctuations returning to normal.
【Current Strategy】
Short-term:
1. If tariff policies are implemented, reduce holdings in high-risk altcoins and maintain mainstream coins like BTC and ETH.
2. Monitor USDT premium; if the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly, off-market funds may enter and exit through stablecoins.
Medium-term:
1. Dips in the 'anti-regulation' sector: privacy coins, decentralized stablecoins.
2. Focus on the progress of the U.S. elections; every tough statement from Trump may trigger a sharp market drop, so low-price buy orders can be placed to accumulate assets.
【Future Predictions】
1. Worst-case scenario: Trump increases tariffs + the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts, leading to market liquidity tightening, with cryptocurrencies potentially following U.S. stocks down by 20%-30%.
2. Neutral scenario: Policy battles drag on, with BTC fluctuating widely between $50,000 and $60,000, and altcoins diverging (those with practical applications resisting declines, while worthless coins accelerate towards zero).
3. Unexpected positive: If China or the EU introduces cryptocurrency easing policies, it may hedge against U.S. stock risks and drive an independent market.
【National Prosperity Reminder】
Veteran players in the cryptocurrency market know that when a 'black swan' event occurs, surviving is more important than making profits. Recommendations for ordinary players:
Maintain over 50% stablecoin positions to avoid leveraged betting.
Reduce exposure to panic statements on Twitter, and pay more attention to BTC on-chain data.
If you want to make money, don’t act alone! Follow National Prosperity Trends, comment to share your views, and let’s seize the lucrative opportunities of the bull market together!!