Bitcoin surged nearly $3000, peaking around 107998. I mentioned in my article yesterday (as expected, a sharp drop! The US-China relationship has severed, Bitcoin plummeting to 106,000! The altcoin season has turned into an altcoin funeral! Get ahead in the second half of the year, layout the four main lines! On the rate cut, Powell's latest statement!) that Bitcoin is currently mainly bullish in short positions. Both 106000 and 104700 can be used for short bullish speculation; I went long at 106000 and made a profit of 2000 points.
BTC
Yesterday, Bitcoin showed a downward trend throughout the day, with the high-level consolidation area gradually being broken, but there was no accelerated drop in volume. This morning, the price was pushed up, returning to the consolidation range and starting to fluctuate. Before the non-farm data is released, the market will likely continue to maintain a fluctuation pattern.
The intraday Bitcoin rebound seems strong, but the trading volume is low during the V-shaped reversal, and the rebound height may be limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance level at 108200; as the price gradually approaches the 110000 mark, short liquidity is relatively sufficient. Under the background of high-level consolidation, there is reason for the price to test the stop-loss levels of shorts.
Strategy:
Short selling: Consider formulating short positions in the range of 108200-108888.
Bottom fishing: More optimistic about the 104700 point level; it is recommended to continue waiting for opportunities here. If it breaks below 104700, the trend will weaken; one can operate when it rebounds to 103100.
ETH
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum has a lower trading difficulty, and recently there has been no risk of triggering stop losses. This morning, Ethereum tested support around 2380 at the lower edge of the consolidation zone, successfully rebounding after stopping the decline. It reached a daily high of 2450 before showing signs of stagnation, and minor levels are entering a natural pullback.
The current trend within the consolidation zone is unclear. The upper boundary at 2520 is a heavy resistance level and is a target for short-term bulls. If it breaks above 2520 and holds, further bullish sentiment can be expected; the lower boundary at 2380 is a key support level, and breaking below it may prolong bearish momentum.
Strategy:
Fluctuation trading: Conduct fluctuation trades in the range of 2380-2520.
Strength-Weakness Boundary: 2460 is a temporary profit-taking point; long positions can partially take profits here.
Altcoin market
Currently, the altcoin market is generally declining, with extremely poor liquidity. Venture capital (VC) and investors buying in the secondary market are generally losing, with only project parties and shorts profiting. Surviving retail investors have mostly recognized the essence of altcoins as 'air coins,' while those who haven't may have lost over 90% of their funds. Investors looking forward to a new bubble narrative need to be patient; the current market's 'old leeks' are gradually seeing through these tricks, and the situation in the crypto circle can be described as 'those who seek benevolence find benevolence.'
In the past six months, altcoins have only seen a major surge for a week (with weekly gains over 20%), referred to as 'Altcoin Week.' If one can cash out after a week of significant gains, it would be a successful top escape.
Now that this coin-stock narrative has emerged, the excess in altcoins will be compressed even more severely, and those abandoned will be done so more thoroughly. My USDT can buy better assets; who would still buy altcoins with no fundamentals? It's time to short the garbage altcoins and new projects.
July rate cut, will there be a trend reversal tomorrow?
The small non-farm ADP data announced tonight shows that employment increased by only 33,000, far below the expected 95,000 and the previous value of 29,000, marking the worst performance since March 2023. Market sentiment is tense ahead of tomorrow's large non-farm payroll data. Family data also shows market weakness; currently, the September rate cut has been fully priced in, with a 22% probability of a 50 basis point cut.
Weak employment data is favorable for interest rate cut expectations. The probability of a rate cut in July has slightly increased; although still low, it is no longer impossible.
The small non-farm payroll often serves as a precursor to the large non-farm payroll. Tomorrow's large non-farm payroll may trigger significant market volatility. The community will guide operations, regardless of bullish or bearish trends; as long as there is volatility, both long and short positions can profit. Every day is our bull market!
