Bitcoin ($BTC ) nudged up 0.9% in the last 24 hours, holding strong near $107K after June’s record-breaking monthly close. Sounds bullish, right? But here’s the twist: derivatives markets are flashing meh. 👀
🧊 Traders Are Snoozing on Futures Futures open interest is stuck around $25B, while funding rates remain flat. Options traders? Still sitting on the fence. No clear bullish or bearish bias short-term—just sideways vibes.
📉 Premiums Dip, Institutions Pull Back The CME premium has dipped to its lowest since Oct 2023, signaling waning institutional interest. It’s a bit of a “wait and see” mood out there—especially with macro uncertainty looming.
📆 But July Has History on Its Side 📊 Bitcoin has historically performed well in July—up in 7 out of the last 10 years, with an average +7% gain. Market maker Wintermute even noted that July sees solid spot returns without frothy funding.
⚠️ Macro Wildcards Ahead The U.S. dollar is nearing a death cross 🪦, and Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline is spooking markets. Plus, Friday’s jobs report could sway the Fed’s next rate move. Don’t sleep on the macro.
📊 Notable Movers
$ETH sits just above $2,445, a quiet day for the #2 crypto.
$XRP open interest hits 4-week highs – traders gearing up for a big move?
$SOL, $SUI, $SHIB showing negative funding = bearish bias creeping in.
🔥 Big Picture The rally is here—kinda. But with quiet derivatives markets, cautious institutions, and looming macro risks, this could be the calm before the storm.
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💬 Your Take: Are we coiling up for a breakout or just stalling before a bigger dip? Drop your thoughts below! 👇