FDV reflects total token value, not just what’s circulating.
It shows the full potential valuation if all tokens were live—essential for understanding future supply risks.High FDV can signal upcoming sell pressure from token unlocks.
Always check vesting schedules and market cap-to-FDV ratio before investing.Smart investors don’t rely on FDV alone.
Combine it with utility, demand, and unlock timing to avoid dilution traps and false valuation signals.
FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) shows a crypto project’s theoretical max value. Learn how it forms, impacts price, and guides smarter investment decisions.
WHAT IS FDV?
In the world of crypto investing, FDV（Fully Diluted Valuation）is a metric that gives you a glimpse into a token’s theoretical maximum market value. It assumes that all tokens—including those still locked, vested, or reserved—are already in circulation.
✅ The formula is simple:
FDV = Current Token Price × Total Token Supply
Unlike market cap, which only considers the circulating supply, FDV reflects what the project could be worth if every last token were unleashed into the market. That’s why this number often appears much higher than the current market cap—especially for early-stage or vesting-heavy tokens.
So why does this matter?
Because FDV can serve as a warning signal. A project might seem “cheap” based on its current market cap, but if it has a sky-high FDV, that could mean significant token unlocks—and potential sell pressure—are coming. Smart investors use this metric to gauge future dilution risk and avoid getting caught in supply overhangs.
>>> More to read: What is Bitcoin MVRV? How Does It Work?
WHY DOES FDV EXIST? HOW IS IT FORMED?
A high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) doesn’t always mean a project is overhyped—it often reflects how the tokenomics were structured from the very beginning. Here’s how it typically happens:
✅ Early Investment, Ultra-Low Cost
Crypto projects raise funds by selling tokens to VCs and early investors at a steep discount (e.g., $0.01).
These tokens are usually not released all at once.
✅ Vesting Schedules Delay Circulation
To avoid massive dumping after launch, projects impose vesting periods (e.g., 12–36 months).
Tokens are released gradually over time, even though they already count toward the total supply.
✅ The Formula: Paper Value > Real Market Cap
FDV = Current Price × Total Token Supply
This includes all tokens—circulating or not—so the FDV can be far higher than actual market cap.
✅ Why It Matters
Locked tokens don’t immediately enter the market, but they will.
Smart investors monitor FDV to anticipate future sell pressure from upcoming unlocks.
When large amounts of tokens are scheduled to be released, the market often reacts before the actual unlock date.
>>> More to read: What is Moving Average (MA)? How Does It Work
HOW DOES A HIGH FDV IMPACT TOKEN PRICE?
When a cryptocurrency’s FDV is significantly higher than its market cap—often 2 to 3 times greater—it indicates a large amount of tokens are still locked and not yet in circulation. This imbalance can have serious implications for price action, especially as those tokens begin to unlock.
1️⃣ Unlock Events Can Trigger Sell Pressure
When a large batch of tokens unlocks, early investors, team members, or foundations may choose to take profits. This sudden increase in selling activity often leads to downward price pressure.
🔍 Example: $WLD (Worldcoin)
Market Cap: ~$1.36B
FDV: ~$8.38B
This massive gap suggests that most tokens remain locked, and future unlocks could drive the price lower.
2️⃣ Supply Increases Without Demand = Price Drop
As token supply grows due to scheduled unlocks, if user demand doesn’t scale accordingly, prices are likely to decline. The market often anticipates this imbalance well in advance.
🔍 Example: $APT (Aptos)
At launch, its FDV far exceeded its market cap. As token unlocks began, the price quickly dropped from early highs, validating concerns about future supply pressure.
3️⃣ Low Circulating Supply Can Create Valuation Illusions
In early stages, projects often launch with only a small portion of their total token supply in circulation. This can make a token appear “cheap” or “undervalued” based on market cap—but it’s a false signal if FDV is drastically higher.
🔍 Example: $ARB (Arbitrum)
Less than 15% of the total supply was circulating at launch, yet FDV was already in the multi-billion-dollar range.
This disconnect can mislead investors who rely solely on market cap without considering the full unlock schedule.
>>> More to read: What are Bollinger Bands & How to Use Them
HOW CAN INVESTORS USE FDV TO MAKE BETTER DECISIONS?
While FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) is a valuable metric in crypto investing, it should not be used in isolation. To truly assess risk and opportunity, investors need to look deeper into how FDV relates to token unlocks, supply dynamics, and real demand. Here’s how to use FDV more effectively:
📌 Check the Token Unlock Schedule
Understanding when locked tokens will be released is crucial. Look for upcoming unlock events that could lead to sudden increases in circulating supply.
If a large portion of tokens are set to unlock in the coming months, price pressure is likely.
Timing matters—tokens unlocking during market weakness are more likely to trigger sell-offs.
📌 Evaluate the Market Cap to FDV Ratio
Compare the circulating market cap to the FDV. A very low ratio signals that most of the token supply is still locked.
For example: If a token’s market cap is only 10% of its FDV, it means 90% of the supply hasn’t hit the market yet.
This creates a high risk of future dilution and downward price pressure.
📌 Analyze Market Demand and Product Traction
High FDV is more sustainable when paired with strong user demand and meaningful real-world utility.
Coins like BTC or ETH can absorb unlocks because of global demand.
In contrast, newer tokens with weak fundamentals may struggle to maintain value once supply ramps up.
📌 Be Cautious with Airdrops and Token Design
Airdrops are great for user acquisition—but they can flood the market with sell pressure if recipients have no long-term interest.
🔍 Example: $OP (Optimism)
In June 2022, after its first airdrop, $OP dropped over 75% within days—falling from ~$1.80 to ~$0.40.
Why? Many users dumped their free tokens immediately, overwhelming the market.
✏️ Final Thoughts
FDV is often misunderstood. It represents the maximum potential valuation of a project—but not its current value or demand.
✅ High FDV ≠ Overvalued by default
❗ High FDV plus low circulating supply plus weak demand = red flag
To make smarter investment decisions, always combine FDV with:
Circulating supply analysis
Unlock schedules
Real user demand
Overall tokenomics and utility
That’s how you avoid the trap of low market cap, high FDV, and eventual dilution shocks.
ꚰ CoinRank x Bitget – Sign up & Trade!
Looking for the latest scoop and cool insights from CoinRank? Hit up our Twitter and stay in the loop with all our fresh stories!
〈What is FDV in Crypto?〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。
