As of July 1, 2025, Bitcoin ($BTC) is trading at $106,537, with a market cap of $2.11 trillion and a 24-hour volume of $21.87 billion. While price action remains tight—ranging between $106,544 and $107,938—technicals paint a picture of caution, indecision, and possible volatility ahead.
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🔍 1-Hour Chart: Downtrend Remains Intact
BTC/USD is showing clear signs of a short-term downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows forming off the $108,800 peak. Volume confirms this weakness—selling pressure is rising on red candles. Traders are eyeing intraday bounces near $107,500–$108,000 as potential short entries, while $106,000 acts as near-term support.
➡️ The selling is steady—not panicked—but suggests distribution, not accumulation. Unless momentum shifts decisively, bearish pressure dominates in the short term.
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🕓 4-Hour Chart: Sideways Chop After Rejection
After failing to hold above $108,800, BTC has entered a range-bound phase, finding weak support around $106,300. The smaller candles and declining volume post-breakout reflect market hesitation. Unless momentum improves, this consolidation could linger.
🎯 Scalpers may find short-term entries near $106,000, with resistance-heavy exits around $108,000. A breakdown below support could see BTC targeting $105,000 or lower.
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📆 Daily Chart: Consolidation With Bearish Risk
The macro view reveals a broader consolidation phase after a rally topped at $110,789 and retraced to $98,240. While buyers emerged near the lows, sellers remain active near $108,000.
⚠️ A bearish engulfing pattern is forming. If momentum fails to reclaim the $108K–$110K zone, a decline back to $102K–$103K is likely. Breaking below $98K would signal a deeper correction.
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📊 Indicators: Mixed Signals
RSI: 52 – Neutral
Stochastic %K: 86 – Overbought; sell signal
CCI: 58 – Mildly bullish
ADX: 12 – Weak trend
MACD: 557 – Slight bullish bias
Momentum: 4,462 – Positive, but not strong
⚖️ The overall picture is neutral-to-cautious, favoring short-term trades rather than heavy directional bets.
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🧮 Moving Averages: Long-Term Bullish Bias Holds
10 EMA: $106,607 – Sell
10 SMA: $106,367 – Buy
All longer MAs (20, 30, 50, 100, 200) are flashing buy signals, suggesting strong long-term structure despite short-term weakness.
These moving averages may act as dynamic support, cushioning potential dips.
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🐂 Bullish Scenario:
If $106,000 holds and buyers re-emerge near $102K–$103K, the long-term uptrend could resume. A clean break above $108K could open the gates to $110K and even $111K, in line with the broader bullish structure.
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🐻 Bearish Scenario:
If BTC loses the $106,000 support, the next stop could be the $103K–$100K range. A break below $98,000 would trigger strong selling, invalidating bullish outlooks and pointing to a deeper correction.
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Verdict: July may bring high-impact volatility. With mixed signals across timeframes, traders should stay nimble, reduce leverage, and react to key levels as they develop.
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