In today's market, whenever policy signals are released, there is always a focus on the timing of interest rate cuts: "Will there be a cut in July?" "Will there be two cuts in September? Can there be three cuts by the end of the year?

This excessive focus on timing obscures the more critical issue: the Federal Reserve's true stance on inflation. Previously, the "liberation day tariffs" once sparked concerns about soaring inflation, delaying expectations for rate cuts; then tariffs were suspended, and with CPI and PCE data not showing deterioration, optimism arose again, declaring that "it’s time to start cutting rates."

This is the current contradiction: inflation concerns have not dissipated, yet the market has already bet on easing.

Powell's remarks are quite candid: he is also uncertain. He is waiting for clearer data—waiting for inflation to truly achieve a soft landing and for the labor market to genuinely cool down.

Therefore, the core issue is not to speculate on whether "there will be a rate cut in July," but to closely monitor: inflation and employment data, when will they show substantial slowing down?