1. Interpretation of news
The U.S. Congress has recently passed a ‘large-scale and content-rich’ tax reduction and spending bill, yet those in the cryptocurrency field cannot hide their disappointment. The highly anticipated cryptocurrency tax incentives were ultimately not included in Trump's (Beautiful Big Bill). This result leads the crypto industry to continue facing heavy pressure in tax compliance, and the uncertainty of future policy direction has further intensified. Previously, the market's short-term expectations for positive signals from U.S. policy fell through, causing fluctuations in market sentiment, with operational pressures on cryptocurrency firms remaining high and compliance costs still elevated. Although this event is not a catastrophic negative news, it undoubtedly shatters the market's optimistic fantasy for improvements in the U.S. policy environment in the short term.
(2) Technical analysis
(1) Analysis of BTC trends
Yesterday's analysis report emphasized the need to closely monitor the short-selling opportunity at the key point of 1078 above BTC. During today's Asian trading session, the BTC price attempted to break through the area around 1075 multiple times but failed to succeed and subsequently encountered resistance and fell back. Entering the U.S. trading session, the market opened with a rapid and significant drop, with the maximum intraday decline reaching over 3000 points, fully aligning with expectations. From a daily perspective, BTC has recorded two consecutive days of small bearish candles, with the peak being basically confirmed, and a short-term downtrend has formed. The current market focus is on exploring the bottom position of the decline. Reviewing the price trend over the past two months, the low point of 101 can be seen as the primary support line, while the area around 95, as the starting platform for previous price increases, has significant support significance. Its gain or loss may directly impact the market direction in the next one to two months. The 4-hour K-line chart shows that the decline over the past two days has presented obvious wave characteristics, which can be divided into two phases: the first phase saw prices drop from 1085 to 1070, and the second phase saw a decline from 1075 to 1055, showing an overall oscillating downward trend. In terms of intraday trading strategy, it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure levels in the 1065 - 1075 range, seeking short-selling opportunities; on the downside, closely monitor the support strength at the 1047 - 1037 positions.
(2) Analysis of the trend of Two Pie (ETH)
Similarly, in yesterday's research report, the pressure level and short-selling opportunity at the position of 2490 above Two Pie were clearly indicated. In today's morning session, the price of Two Pie repeatedly hit this point but failed to effectively break through and subsequently fell back, with a maximum decline of over 120 points, completely aligning with expected judgments. On the daily level, Two Pie has recorded two consecutive bearish days, and the K-line has fallen below the support of the moving average. In the short term, around 2210 is considered an effective support level. During the morning session, the price made a significant rebound after a volume increase probing the recent low point of 2380, but from the 4-hour line observation, there was no significant volume expansion during the rebound process, and the K-line remained constrained by the downward pressure of the 7-day moving average. The intraday operating suggestion is to focus on the pressure levels in the 2450 - 2480 range above, seeking short-selling opportunities; on the downside, pay close attention to the support at the 2380 level. If the price can break below the morning low, it may open up a larger downward space.
(3) Dynamics of the altcoin market Recently, the overall altcoin sector has shown a weak oscillating pattern, with many currencies showing signs of high-position adjustments. The market hotspots have switched frequently and lack sustainability, with some projects with poor liquidity even showing signs of large-scale unloading. The rapid rotation of hotspots makes high chasing trades extremely risky, and investors need to be highly vigilant. In this market environment, the trading volume indicator is particularly crucial; if the trading volume cannot continue to expand, do not blindly chase high prices; if there is a surge followed by a pullback that fails to break through previous highs, it can basically be determined as a trap. When the market trend is still unclear, it is imperative to prioritize risk control; when the opportunity cost of trading is too high, it is better to choose to stay out and observe rather than rashly enter the market.
Special reminder: The cryptocurrency market experiences severe price fluctuations; investment decisions should be made with caution. The above analysis represents personal opinions and does not constitute any investment advice, for reference and discussion only.
(Follow Dachuan, detailed market analysis of news and technical aspects)