The market has a chance of recovery, but only if volatility returns to bullish levels.
As XRP shows new signs of recovery, the long-term consolidation may be coming to an end. Although the asset struggles to significantly break through the $2.25-$2.30 resistance, a substantial 300% increase in trading volume may lay the groundwork for the long-awaited reversal.
The 200 EMA is a key level and has been a benchmark support for XRP since early May, currently still slightly above this level on the daily chart. Notably, despite general market volatility, this stability persists. Although Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced fluctuations due to liquidations, XRP's price has remained within a range, indicating that strong buying interest may be lurking in the market.
Trading volume has increased by 300%, indicating that traders, especially large ones, are waiting for the anticipated breakout or key movement. This surge in volume is notable compared to weeks of sluggish trading volume and the tightening of the Bollinger Bands (which suggests that volatility compresses before expanding).
The convergence of major moving averages is another encouraging factor. At $2.20, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages nearly coincide, while the 200-day moving average is slightly below $2.10. If bulls can maintain buying pressure and force the closing price above $2.30, they may be able to convert these levels into dynamic support and generate additional upward momentum.
This type of gathering has historically served as a launching pad. Additionally, as XRP breaks free from the general stagnation of altcoins, market sentiment is steadily improving. With the RSI still close to 50 in the neutral zone, there is still ample room for overbought conditions, and weakness is not expected immediately.
Ethereum is in trouble.
A crucial turning point for Ethereum may determine the trend for the remainder of this summer. As ETH is situated between two important moving averages, which are currently converging, this cryptocurrency has entered a compressed trading range on the daily chart. While the exact direction remains unclear, this often serves as a precursor to sudden volatility.
Ethereum's current price is situated between the 200-day moving average (close to $2,380) and the 50-day moving average (around $2,500). When the 100-day and 50-day moving averages nearly coincide, it forms an increasingly tight channel. This compression, also known as EMA squeeze, is a typical situation where traders become complacent, volatility slows down, and then the price explodes in one direction.
The past three weeks have witnessed the development of this pattern. After the failed attempt to break through $2,800 in early June, sellers deliberately pushed the price down to this narrow range. Despite the failed breakout, buyers successfully defended the 200-day moving average, preventing a larger decline below $2,300. Both bulls and bears are unwilling to take initial decisive action, leading to an unstable balance and stalemate.
This consolidation is also accompanied by a decrease in trading volume, supporting the view that market tensions are escalating. The market is neither overbought nor oversold, which typically occurs before a volatility expansion, as evidenced by the RSI remaining balanced around 45-50. The key question is, where will the next wave of volatility come from?
If Ethereum breaks through the 50-day moving average (EMA) resistance near $2,500, it may regain upward momentum and move towards the $2,800 area. On the other hand, falling below the 200-day moving average and $2,300 could trigger new selling pressure and push the market towards the psychological level of $2,000.
Dogecoin can do it.
Some preliminary signs suggest that while Dogecoin is still slowly declining, it may be approaching a critical reversal zone. The price level of $0.152 currently seems to be a potential turning point that could determine whether Dogecoin ultimately stabilizes or continues to decline.
In recent weeks, Dogecoin's trading range has continued to narrow, repeatedly setting new highs but failing to regain the momentum lost earlier. Just below the 200-day moving average (EMA), the last rebound attempt in early June was decisively rejected, indicating that bears are still firmly in control of the market. Since then, Dogecoin has fallen back to the $0.160 to $0.150 range, which has historically been used as an accumulation area when the market trend is stabilizing.
From a technical perspective, $0.152 is crucial as it aligns with the consolidation range from late March to early April. If Dogecoin maintains above this area, it may indicate that bears are losing control and a larger pullback may occur, potentially falling towards the 100-day moving average of $0.19. However, the market environment is not optimistic.
The RSI indicator stagnates around 37, and trading volume remains sluggish, indicating ongoing weakness and a lack of genuine buying enthusiasm. Dogecoin has largely shaken off the speculative enthusiasm that had driven its previous rallies. Instead, it now resembles a low-volatility asset that typically moves lower in the absence of catalysts.
In the coming days, it will be important to watch whether Dogecoin can maintain the $0.152 level while increasing trading volume. Breaking through the short-term moving average and consistently holding this level may be enough to trigger a rebound. However, if this area cannot be held, the next reasonable target will be near $0.13, where subsequent historical support levels appear.
