📉 $BTC (2025-07-02 08:45) | Long/Short Trend Index: 36 / 100 (Weakening Confirmed)

BTC has continuously retreated from the high level of 108,800 and has now fallen below the key support of 106,000, with short-term bears dominating. MACD has turned green across multiple periods, RSI is in a weak range, indicating that the trend has shifted from a strong oscillation to a downward movement. If 104,800 is lost, it will further open up adjustment space.

🔹 Multi-Period Candlestick Trend Assessment:

15-Minute Chart: Continuous decline and break below MA99 support, MACD has once again formed a dead cross and turned green, RSI has rebounded to 46.2 from a low position, short-term bears still control the market;

1-Hour Chart: After structural breakdown, it continues to consolidate at low levels, MACD bars are expanding, RSI remains at 37.6, short-term trend is clearly bearish;

4-Hour Chart: MA7/25 has a dead cross downward, MACD continues to expand below the zero axis, RSI has slipped to 37.1, bearish trend is gradually strengthening;

Daily Chart: Closed below MA7 and MA25, MACD golden cross has disappeared, RSI has fallen back to 49.5, clear signs of interruption in the rebound structure;

Weekly Chart: Price has retreated after being blocked by upper resistance, RSI has fallen below 60.0, MACD red bars are shrinking, trend momentum is weakening.

📊 Technical Indicator Analysis:

MACD: All 15m/1H/4H have formed dead crosses and expanded, bearish momentum continues to strengthen, daily golden cross has disappeared, weekly red bars are exhausting;

RSI: Multi-periods have synchronized to fall below 50, especially 1H/4H has entered a weak range, indicating bears dominate the market;

Moving Average System: BTC price has fallen below MA7/25, and MA99 support has been lost, daily structure confirmation of weakening;

Trading Volume: Recent declines accompanied by increased volume, indicating rising selling pressure; if volume continues to increase and test, it may test the key support at 104,800.

🌐 Summary of Macro News (Last 24 hours):

1. [Coindesk July 1] Grayscale GBTC shows signs of discount rebound again, short-term arbitrage funds are active but provide limited support for spot;

2. [The Block July 1] Bitwise report shows slowdown in institutional ETF subscriptions, market enthusiasm has clearly cooled;

3. [Twitter CryptoQuant Analyst] Inflows of Bitcoin to exchanges are rising, suspected miner and early address cash-outs;

4. [CNBC July 1] The dollar index rebounded and stabilized at 105.3, suppressing the short-term performance of risk assets.