Musk and Trump have had a real argument again, and the market has gone out. Bitcoin has been declining all day, and the costs generated by their quarrel are entirely borne by Bitcoin and the wallets of crypto enthusiasts. The more intense their argument, the more severely Bitcoin drops.
Sweet Dream reminded yesterday: "Bitcoin has repeatedly tested 108,000, and the lack of a higher rebound is a very dangerous signal. At the current position, I will maintain a bearish view. Only if it breaks below 107,256 and a lower low appears on the hourly level can the M-top be considered established, allowing for a deeper correction."
BTC
BTC's daily downtrend line has not been broken, and horizontal resistance has not been breached, so maintain a bearish outlook! Recently, Sweet Dream has consistently adhered to shorting on highs, only profiting from shorts.
Bitcoin continues to decline throughout the day. The lower boundary of the high-level consolidation zone is being tested. The bears have not yet released more volume, and the current price is already very close to $106,100. I plan to first make a short position with a take-profit at the first level, waiting for a breakdown.
Bitcoin is very critical tonight! It will determine the short-term rise and fall of Bitcoin. $106,300 is the warning line for a pullback! If it falls below $106,300, it will start to pull back. If it stabilizes above $106,300, it is a low-buy opportunity.
Due to the temporary lack of downside space, the current focus is on short-term bullish positions. Both $106,000 and $104,700 can be used for short-term bullish gambles; if the latter breaks, continue shorting on the right side. The upper $110,400 can also be shorted with a stop loss at new highs.
ETH
Ethereum is in a volatile market, oscillating between 2520-2380. In the early morning, 2520 provided an opportunity for short entries, and around 2460, a first take-profit can be made. 2120 is the bull-bear dividing line; breaking below this would indicate a bear market. The cost-effectiveness of accumulating spot here is quite good.
However, ETH performed differently last night during the market's surge and retreat, even showing some resistance to decline, continuously testing around 2520, and with the consolidation zone's center gradually moving up. Ethereum's exchange rate can only have a chance to surge again if it strongly recovers to 0.0255. Currently, it is mainly about accumulating.
Breaking news: [Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: The vast majority of Federal Reserve members expect to cut interest rates later this year]
Most Federal Reserve officials also said they would cut interest rates later, and July is looking a bit uncertain. In short, the short-term inflation issue remains a sticking point for the Fed, unless there is a significant decline in non-farm payrolls. Thursday's non-farm data is crucial.
Altcoins
The altcoin trends are terrible; as soon as there’s a slight pullback upon arrival, altcoins will immediately show their demise. There is a serious lack of liquidity. For me, this is the harvest season. Many people shouted that the altcoin season is coming, and I just knew that the altcoin festival might really be coming. What you perceive as a poor market may just be an excuse for your ineffective strategy. The market is not wrong; the mistake is that you only have direction without a system, relying solely on luck and lacking self-sustaining capability. Don't wait for the altcoin season. What you should do is: short yourself to create the altcoin season!
The existing market liquidity cannot even support the volumes for alpha and Binance spot trading; the recent projects of alpha are basically just a wash, yielding no real returns.
Recently, major CEXs should have realized that something is wrong and have started to delist crazily. This may just be the beginning, as I have always said, most altcoins are dead.
Binance delisted: $alpha, $bsw, $kmd, $lever, $lto
okx delisted: $X, $BSV, $GOG, $DIA, $BONE, $OXT
In the future, funds will flow from institutions to the crypto market. Those who can enjoy the altcoin bull dividends are not these projects, but rather
(1) From the institutional perspective, possessing a complete and reasonable business model:
For example, $hype, $uni, $aave, $jup, which can achieve self-profitability and can integrate with sectors like rwa ai.
(2) Those who can enjoy the dividends of tokenized stocks or stock tokens:
xstock is a stock token project launched on the Sol chain, in cooperation with Robinhood and $arb to release L2, supporting stock tokens and contract trading. $link continues to serve as a price discovery machine across different platforms, becoming a bridge between tokenized stocks and stocks.
(3) Stablecoin projects
(4) RWA sector
In this round, we don’t need to look at too many projects; just focus on the leaders in the few sectors I mentioned. By this time next year, you will find that most altcoins on CEX cannot outperform these.
On-chain:
EGL1: EGL1 has gone Alpha! Awesome projects don’t need to give chips to score users for airdrops; those projects that launch end up being unrecognizable to their creators. I currently hold and am gradually running it. After entering contracts, I plan to take out 50%, leaving the rest for spot! The price is still very stable, and there are many favorable expectations ahead. I believe this is just the beginning; the main event is the purchase of wlfi, first in the trading competition, and there should be no surprises next.
