Bitcoin continues to plunge today, breaking key support, dropping to a low of 106,615. Sweet Dream reminded yesterday that Bitcoin at 107,706 is not suitable for longs; it’s like licking blood from a blade, already at the upper edge of the range. Pay attention to 107,450 below, and if it breaks, go short.
BTC
BTC is facing the key trendline resistance at 109,000. Currently, it is undergoing a pullback in the range of 98,100-109,000, targeting around 104,700-5800. If the support structure breaks out, it can move upwards. First, pay attention to the trendline resistance; if it breaks, there will be a chance to see a historical high. In the afternoon, pay attention to a short opportunity after a rebound; currently at the bottom of a small channel, there are two entry points for shorts.
1, go short after a rebound.
2, break below the channel to go short.
The next target for bears is the 105K range, then 103.5K and 101.5K.
Long opportunity: The bottom at this level has not yet formed, and those who are flat can continue to observe; it should come out within a week. There are three points as long as they do not break down, there will be opportunities for a rebound: one is 106,150, one is 103,695, and one is 102,165.
ETH
Ethereum rebounded from 2430 to 2524, then pulled back to 2430 forming an inverted V, and then came a deep V at midnight tempting a rebound up to around 2520.
The hourly chart is forming an M shape, with a double top at 2520 and a bottom at 2430. For those without short positions, you can still participate in high shorts between 2500 and 2530 and 2560 during the day, targeting down to 2460, 2420, and 2380 here. The range between 2380 and 2520 is very delicate; if it breaks upward, there is a chance to test the top of the larger range, if it breaks downward, it will be problematic.
Altcoin
The market has been falling these days, but various institutions and listed companies are buying. The inflow of ETF funds has also been continuous, generally around 500 million daily. Of course, the funds entering from listed companies or ETFs are very hard to flow into the secondary market for altcoins.
(1)ARB
There are rumors that ARB has caught the attention of Robinhood; it rebounded from the bottom and rose 40%, and then it was dumped. Sweet Dream publicly recommended yesterday that 0.358 can be shorted for ARB.
Currently near the resistance level of the ARB structure, a climax reversal signal indicates a bear market reversal. The rebound is no longer reaching new highs, forming a converging range. If the range breaks down, the bearish structure will be established, starting a wave of declines—do not chase shorts after a drop; wait for a resistance turn after a rebound to short. For longs, it’s best to wait for the two key supports below (which are also targets for bears).
(2)swarms
Yesterday, Sweet Dream recommended going long on swarms at 0.019645, which rose to a maximum of 0.0246833, an increase of over 40%.
Currently at a key resistance level, overbought with high volume. It’s suitable for longs that have come from the bottom to start taking profits and not suitable for chasing the rise. Next, there may be a pullback or a consolidation in the red range, which is a time for longs to refrain and for shorts to wait.
Currently, Sweet Dream's plan for altcoins is to short on highs and buy on dips. Next, I plan to layout shorts for TRUMP and ZRO on highs in early July. If there is a big surge, I will build some positions; if not, I will dollar-cost average into low-leverage short positions. This is quite similar to bottom fishing, just the direction is reversed. As long as I take profits on the unlocking day, it will be fine. These strategies and points are updated in real-time in our community every day.
This week's turning point.
The U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm data for June will be released, which may trigger alarms. The seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population in June may drop sharply to 116,000, and the unemployment rate may also rise. We'll see if the market continues to treat funerals as celebrations. The employment impact caused by Trump’s tariffs is becoming evident. This week's data is likely just the first step, and the unemployment rate may continue to rise in the coming months due to tariffs, which is what Sweet Dream is worried about.
This week's non-farm data will directly determine interest rate cut expectations. If the data is weak, the expectation for rate cuts will rise, which is good for crypto. If the data exceeds expectations, market panic will arise, increasing the risk of BTC pullback. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate downward, so keep a close eye on the following trends and don’t miss out on profit opportunities!