At the time of writing, $BTC is trading around $106,600 after hitting a key resistance near $108,500 a few days ago. Based on my analysis, each time BTC touches a major resistance level, it tends to correct for several days. Earlier today, the daily candle closed with a bearish engulfing pattern (a common technical signal that often suggests a potential downside move) adding more weight to the bearish outlook.
Using cyclical analysis via TradingView tools, we can identify a repeating pattern over the past few months:
In the first cycle, when BTC hit $111,800 and began a correction exactly until 14 days later.
In the second cycle, after reaching $110,500, a pullback began until 12 days after the peak.
In the latest instance, BTC touched $108,500 on June 30, 2025. If the pattern continues, we could see a notable correction occurring until July 11, potentially dragging BTC toward the $97,000 level.
This bearish outlook is further validated by the recent failure to maintain price above key resistance, combined with weakening momentum and downside pressure from macroeconomic uncertainty. Any additional shocks whether from inflation data, the Fed, or unexpected political statements (especially from figures like Donald Trump) may accelerate the move lower.
Unless BTC reclaims critical levels above the $107,200 range soon and invalidates the bearish structure, traders should prepare for continued volatility and possible downside over the next 10 days.
~ Purrgle
Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on historical patterns and technical indicators. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
