Chuangjin Community - 2025.7.1 Daily Analysis

Tariffs are still a ticking time bomb... Currently, the data leans towards a bearish outlook... If tariffs are resolved better, interest rate cuts may come faster this year. We are not yet in a broad interest rate cut environment; poor employment numbers will lead to timely adjustments in interest rate cut expectations. This Thursday, focus on non-farm payrolls...

Overall direction: Bitcoin is at a high level and will have a deep pullback this month... Do not take long positions at high levels, especially abandon all long positions above 108700 and 109100; chasing positions can choose to break through on pullbacks... Mid to long-term can slowly go short...

Ethereum focuses on the metaverse, application scenarios are contracting... Therefore, it is very understandable that the short-term gains do not sync with Bitcoin

On the day: Today, mainly focusing on short positions after a rise... Bearish view on high-level consolidation and pullback, can gradually take short positions

Resistance levels: 2580, 2680, 109100, 110500

Support levels: 2450, 2420, 106000, 104500

Ethereum on that day: ① Aggressive 1% position at 2488 looking for short, stop loss at 2510, ② (suggest waiting for a breakout to make a divergence before going short, stop loss at divergence point + 8 points, wait for it to unfold before setting stop loss) take profit at 2440, 2450

③ Long positions at 2440, 2450, do not enter without signals, can consider long positions at 2420--2410, stop loss at 2400, take profit at 2485, 2495

④ Short positions in the range of 2485, 2495, stop loss at 2515, stable take profit at 2500, 2450, second take profit at 2380, 2360

Bitcoin on that day: ① Aggressive 1% position at 107180 looking for short, 4-hour double divergence, ② Short positions at 107600, 108200... stop loss at 108500 or wait for the point to enter with divergence and then set stop loss at previous high + 200 points... take profit at 106300, 106000, second take profit at 104500, 104700 [No aggressive real-time orders without replenishment]

③ Short-term look for long at 104500, 104700, if not available, abandon

Combined with live broadcast and technical analysis, for reference only #比特币走势分析