Currently, MSTR has surpassed the last Bitcoin price of 112,000 (5.23) and has also exceeded the previous high of 110,600 (6.9), making a strong push towards new highs (momentum appears adequate).

At present, the Bitcoin market is still operating within a bull flag (downtrend channel), and compared to the US stock market's Nasdaq, MSTR, and even Ethereum, let alone Solana, which just had positive staking ETF news, it is weaker.

It has been observed that the decline in the channel of 112,000 has led to a simultaneous decrease in open positions, without an increase in price or an increase in open positions due to short positions accumulating.

Or it could be the case of a false breakout on the day Trump issued coins, where the price reached a new high without a corresponding new high in open positions, creating a divergence.

The current price stagnation is due to many large sell orders in front of Bitcoin at 110,300, including coin-based + USD-based + Coinbase spot. (It seems to have poked the short sellers' hornet's nest), which is also why there has been continuous resistance since Sunday.

The bullish trading volume has not been able to consume these large orders in one go. As long as all the large orders before 110,300 are not consumed, there will not be a smooth gamma market.

At this point, it is unclear what these sell orders are for, but as long as the bullish structure of the market remains intact, one should continue to cautiously hold a bullish outlook, especially if you consider MSTR a leading indicator.

If you believe this is the cycle top and want to short or hedge, it is recommended to operate with support at 110,300, and if it breaks or confirms a breakout with a pullback, then a reversal or stop-loss hedge will be necessary.

As for why Bitcoin's price seems to lag behind this time, even less firm than Ethereum?

🤔

I don’t know, but as long as MSTR maintains a good premium rate, it will eventually drive up Bitcoin's price, as this will lead to a large number of arbitrage institutions like Citron at the end of last year buying Bitcoin spot to short MSTR stock for premium arbitrage.

Still the same saying, justice will be delayed but will not be absent~