📍#BTC Technical Analysis (2025/06/30)
Increasing divergence between bulls and bears, focus on the battle at the channel boundary and EMA200!
---
【Period】12H
Trend: The 12-hour cycle is consolidating within a downward channel, with EMA200 (100,283) serving as regional support. Short-term is bearish but with no obvious one-sided move.
🔹 Bull Information:
🛑 Stop Loss: 100,283
🟢 Add Long: 102,470 (Pending Trigger), 100,283 (Pending Trigger)
🚀 Breakout Add Long: 109,000
🎯 Take Profit: 111,385, 114,414, 120,301
🔻 Bear Information:
🛑 Stop Loss: 109,000
🟢 Add Short: 108,414 (Pending Trigger), 108,000 (Pending Trigger)
🚨 Breakdown Add Short: 102,470
🎯 Take Profit: 96,584, 93,556
【Period】4H
Trend: 4-hour downward channel pattern, price is under pressure from EMA9/21 and the midpoint, with both MACD and DMI leaning bearish.
🔻 Bear Information:
🛑 Stop Loss: 107,404
🟢 Add Short: 107,404 (Pending Trigger), 107,613 (Pending Trigger)
🚨 Breakdown Add Short: 105,049
🎯 Take Profit: 102,470, 96,584, 93,556
【Period】1H
Trend: 1-hour EMA9/21 death cross, RSI and stochastic indicators entering oversold territory, with sufficient short-term downward momentum.
🔻 Bear Information:
🛑 Stop Loss: 107,628
🟢 Add Short: 107,397 (Pending Trigger), 107,628 (Pending Trigger)
🚨 Breakdown Add Short: 105,499
🎯 Take Profit: 102,470, 96,584, 93,556
---
【Strategy Summary】
Operational Advice:
- For 12H, accumulate long positions in the channel lower edge / EMA200 range (100,283–102,470) in batches, with a total position of about 20%, stop loss set at 100,283, target at 111,385 / 114,414.
- For 4H / 1H, if rebounding to EMA9/21 range (107,404–107,628), can gradually add shorts, stop loss at 107,628, target at 102,470 / 96,584.
- Activate shorting after price breaks below 105,049 (4H) and 105,499 (1H), while strictly controlling total risk to a 20% position.
- Pay attention to the breakout at 109,000 and breakdown at 102,470, enter the market in the direction of the trend and strictly execute stop loss and position management.
---
