Trump's tariff policy has a multidimensional and profound impact on the cryptocurrency market, causing both short-term volatility and accelerating structural changes in the medium to long term. Combining the latest market dynamics and policy logic, its effects can be summarized in the following four core dimensions:
I. Short-term Impact: Risk Aversion Leading to Plummeting Prices and Surging Volatility
1. Market Panic Selling
After tariffs on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico were imposed in February 2025, Bitcoin plummeted 9.3% to $93,000 in a single day, with over $900 million in liquidations across the network; in April, reciprocal tariff policies led BTC to a low of $74,500 and ETH to $1,411, with altcoins generally halving in value. The main reason is that investors view crypto assets as a high-risk category, shifting funds to traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
II. Structural Impact: Surge in Mining Costs and Restructuring of the Industry Chain
1. The Mining Machine Supply Chain is Precisely Targeted
Mining machines and chips have been included in the tariff list (the comprehensive tax rate for Chinese-made ASICs reaches 45%-70%), directly increasing the cost of mining machines by 10% and compressing mining profit margins by 6-8%.
Consequences: North American mining companies are forced to relocate to low-tariff areas such as Southeast Asia and Central Asia (e.g., Kazakhstan), accelerating the decentralization of computing power distribution.
2. Relative Advantages of Cloud Computing Power and Compliant Mining Companies
The cloud computing power platform Hiveon transfers costs through service fees, experiencing relatively minor impacts. The compliant mining company Marathon, which holds a U.S. license, enjoys a policy buffer period, with stock performance outperforming manufacturers.
III. Mid-term Transmission: Liquidity Reconstruction and Redefinition of Asset Attributes
1. Federal Reserve Policy as a Key Variable
Tariffs are expected to drive up inflation, with CPI anticipated to exceed 5%, while suppressing growth; global GDP may shrink by $1.4 trillion, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier. The market expects four rate cuts in 2025, with liquidity easing potentially supporting a rebound in the crypto market in Q3. In 2020, a flood of liquidity drove BTC up by 300%; if rate cuts materialize, BTC may once again reflect an anti-inflation narrative.
2. The New Role of Stablecoins in Trade Settlement
To evade U.S. dollar cross-border restrictions, companies are turning to stablecoin settlements, such as USDT being used in Sino-Russian energy transactions. The on-chain cross-border payment volume of USDT grew by 47% in Q2, becoming an alternative channel for digital dollars.
IV. Long-term Evolution: The Positioning of Cryptocurrency in the New Financial Order
1. Opportunities for Bitcoin's Energy Monetization
Oil-producing countries Iran and Venezuela settle crude oil exports in BTC to evade U.S. dollar sanctions. France's EDF is exploring mining during periods of nuclear power surplus, with BTC becoming a neutral settlement layer in the energy value chain.
2. End of Regulatory Arbitrage and Acceleration of Compliance
The U.S. Treasury has frozen $1.2 billion in on-chain assets suspected of tariff evasion, forcing exchanges to strengthen KYC. Hong Kong and Singapore are accelerating the absorption of compliant cryptocurrency businesses, with tokenized securities like GF Token from Guangfa becoming a new growth pole.
Overall, Trump's tariff increases have severely impacted the market in the short term, but they have also exposed the fragility of the traditional financial system, accelerating Bitcoin's evolution into a 'non-sovereign settlement asset.' If everyone can navigate through the policy fog, cryptocurrency may welcome a new round of value reassessment in the second half of 2025, amidst a resonance of liquidity easing and geopolitical conflicts.
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