Views on the subsequent market trend:
1. Potential policy risk node: July 9 (the expiration of the 90-day deadline for China-US tariff negotiations) is a key time window that needs to be monitored closely. Although the market has reacted calmly to this so far and the risk premium has not yet manifested, it remains a potential downward catalyst that is "not fully priced in." Future developments need to be closely tracked.
2. Geopolitical risk temporarily eased: The tensions in the Middle East (especially between Israel and Iran) are currently in a state of suspension, with no further escalation. This easing situation provides short-term support to market sentiment.
3. Monetary policy expectations are dovish: Recently, the frequency of dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials has increased, with more public statements supporting "early interest rate cuts." This clear policy shift expectation significantly benefits overall market liquidity.
Overall, the explicit negative factors facing the current market are relatively limited. Aside from the aforementioned, still unprocessed China-US tariff risks, other major driving factors (geopolitical easing, easing expectations) are leaning towards the positive. This environment provides a certain support foundation for the market.
Although many altcoins have recently experienced deep corrections, there is significant differentiation within them. Numerous "air coins" or problematic projects that lack substantial support continue to be under pressure, but there are also "value coins" that have fundamental support and have been unjustly punished by the market. Once the overall market risk appetite sees marginal improvement (e.g., increased liquidity expectations or alleviated negative sentiment), these value altcoins have the potential to lead a considerable rebound.
Although the current environment may not immediately give rise to a comprehensive bull market, under the backdrop of scarce negative factors and supportive positives, the market has the conditions to welcome a phase of rebound or localized warming ("small climax")
