Looking back at Dogecoin, it has been on a downward trend since December 9th of last year. During this period, we can observe a phenomenon: why haven't we seen Musk promote Dogecoin for a long time? We can associate this with Tesla.

Based on the observation of Tesla's stock price trend in 2024, its key pledge cost range may be between $180 and $210. This means that within the normal framework of commercial negotiations, there will be a floating range for its stock price support level. Once the stock price falls below the lower limit of this range (around $180), it is expected to trigger the forced liquidation line of the pledge agreement (i.e., the 'liquidation point'), leading to the termination of related lending agreements.

The termination of the agreement is essentially equivalent to Musk’s unilateral default. To avoid this situation, he must mobilize huge amounts of capital to support the market. The potential compensation or market rescue cost of such magnitude will put immense pressure on Musk’s personal finances and may even trigger bankruptcy risk. This explains why Tesla's stock price often rebounds quickly when it faces significant short-selling pressure (such as dropping to around $210) — market participants are concerned that falling below key support levels will trigger a chain sell-off.

This large-scale capital transfer itself can have a serious impact on the cryptocurrency market, akin to a bank run. If the selling pressure in the stock market continues to escalate, leading to the breach of key pledge lines, it could directly trigger bankruptcy proceedings.

Therefore, the large-scale withdrawal of liquidity from the cryptocurrency space to address the risk of Tesla's stock price crisis has long been a sword hanging over the market, causing the cryptocurrency trend to show a one-sided weakness, especially Dogecoin, shattering the dreams of many who hoped it would reach $1 by the end of 2024. For meme coins, my personal view has always been not to play the pattern; they can rise quickly, and the multiples can be relatively large, but they can also crash without a bottom.