Israel and Hamas Agreement Ignites Market: Panic or Turning Point? Cryptocurrency Response Strategy
1. Agreement Update: Peace Not Yet Established
On June 30, the Israeli military expressed a preference for an agreement over the occupation of Gaza, but insisted on the goal of 'eliminating Hamas.' Current context: A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in June, international pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza, but military conflicts continue.
2. Market Reaction: Is Crypto a Safe Haven?
BTC Volatility Increases: 24-hour fluctuation exceeds 5%, with a 300% inflow into geopolitical hedge ETFs. ETH Under Pressure: Struggling at the 3,000 mark, RSI oversold, with a staking rate of 29.8% supporting long-term expectations. Key Levels: Bullish if breaking 2,900, triggering stop-loss if breaking 2,400. Stablecoins/Meme Coins Divergence: USDT/USDC market cap up 2% in a single day, DOGE/SHIB soared 15% briefly due to Trump rumors before retreating.
3. Key Contradictions: How Far Can the Agreement Go?
Israeli Objectives: Alleviate pressure from hostage families and international isolation, restructure the ally system. Hamas Dilemma: Fear of losing power if surrendering, resistance intensifying humanitarian crisis. Long-term Conditions: Need for third-party supervision mechanism + Israel to open Gaza for reconstruction.
4. Investment Strategy
Short-term: Short BTC lightly if breaking 107,000, hold long at 108,000; ETH trading range 2,550-2,700 for high sell and low buy. Long-term: Positioning in ETH staking and RWA track. Risk Control: Avoid leverage, pay attention to July's Federal Reserve FOMC signals.
5. Three Future Scenarios
Optimistic: Agreement is established, BTC hits 110,000, ETH breaks 3,000. Neutral: Repeated conflicts, BTC fluctuates between 106,000-107,000, ETH lingers between 2,500-3,200. Pessimistic: Agreement collapses in January, BTC tests 100,000, ETH probes 2,400.
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