OKX's IPO Bet Analysis:

OKX, the world's second-largest crypto exchange, is preparing to go public in the US after paying a $505 million regulatory fine. Despite being penalized for unauthorized operations and money laundering issues, its business data shows strong performance:

Core Strengths:

Leading Trading Volume: Average monthly spot trading volume of $98.19 billion in 2024 (exceeding Coinbase by 6.7%), 19.4% market share in derivatives, and average daily derivatives trading volume of $25 billion.

Global Footprint: Serving 50 million users in over 160 countries/regions, focusing on high-growth crypto markets in Asia and Latin America.

Derivatives Advantage: High-fee derivatives business contributes to major revenue. Coinbase recently entered perpetual contracts, and the competitive landscape is not yet stable.

Risks and Challenges:

Regulatory Uncertainty: International operations face policy changes in multiple countries (e.g., Thailand has banned its operations), high compliance costs, and difficult risk control.

Market Cyclicality: Fluctuations in crypto trading enthusiasm directly affect revenue. Trading volume in June 2024 was more than halved from its peak.

Reputation Burden: Past compliance issues may lead to valuation discounts, and further regulatory or security incidents will severely damage confidence.

Valuation Comparison:

Based on Coinbase's "1x monthly trading volume valuation" as a benchmark, OKX's theoretical valuation is approximately $85.4 billion, but considering a 20% "regulatory risk discount," it may drop to $68.7 billion, with a reasonable range estimated at $70 billion - $90 billion.

Market Game:

OKX is betting that investors value "global growth + derivatives advantage" more than Coinbase's "compliance first" approach. The success of its IPO will test the market's tendency to weigh "growth VS governance" and may also provide a new paradigm for the crypto industry's IPO "redemption narrative."

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