Looking back at this month's Bitcoin trend, it dropped to 98,000 mid-month, but it turned out to be a false breakdown, quickly bouncing back. This is a typical trap for short sellers, where the market maker sweeps the low positions and then reverses the trend, leading to retail short sellers getting liquidated while the market maker profits.
The real big moves often occur after an 'extreme lure for buyers.' This article has repeatedly mentioned that what we are waiting for is a 'false breakout': for example, BTC surges to 110,000, even slightly breaking the previous high of 112,000, attracting a wave of FOMO buying. The market maker takes advantage of the high liquidity to build short positions, and then significantly dumps the price—do you understand this rhythm?
Stop chasing highs and cutting losses; the real opportunity lies in the turning points that follow.
Just to add: LPT, which was mentioned yesterday, surged 20% today, making it to the top three in gains; the timing was very accurate. Currently, there are a batch of meme coins performing actively in the market, such as #Pnut, #Bome, #Neiro, etc., with frequent short-term opportunities.
However, it is important to note that Ethereum is still rotating in a volatile range, with its trend remaining unclear. Most altcoins are also passively trading sideways, and the overall market is still in a wait-and-see period, with fast sector rotations and weak sustainability. Don't fall in love with trades; take profits when you can.
Folks! You won't know until you look, and it's shocking! Remember the Trump coin that exploded at the beginning of the year? It has now dropped nearly 90% from its peak, with a price of less than $9. On-chain data shows that the project recently transferred 2.27 million TRUMP, 1.25 million USDC, and 1,000 SOL to exchanges and quickly cashed out, even withdrawing from the liquidity pool, clearly indicating a net closure.
Meanwhile, another meme project, WIFI, has started to become active. Could it become the next 'harvesting ground'? It’s worth our vigilance!
Alright, let's continue to take a look at the overall market situation this week! How is the overall market doing!
This week's market looks lively, but in reality, there are no substantial breakthroughs. Bitcoin surged to 108,000 on the 'ceasefire news' and has been moving sideways for the past few days, clearly pressed by the upper boundary of the downtrend channel. Whether it can break out or continue its oscillation remains to be seen.
Ethereum has also barely returned to the previous starting point, trading sideways at a major support level, seemingly waiting for direction. Conversely, SOL has performed quite well, similar to Bitcoin, reaching near the upper boundary of the channel. If it can break out with volume, that would technically signal a bullish trend.
As for other altcoins, like PEPE and RAY... same old story, they haven't broken out of the downtrend channel and currently have no independent market performance; in other words, they are still lying flat.
The capital market is buzzing, while the crypto market has instead quieted down.
This week, what truly caught the eye was the performance of those 'crypto concept stocks' in the US and Hong Kong stock markets. Circle once surged to $299 and then fell back to $180; Coinbase and those similar 'MicroStrategy' stocks also saw a significant rise. The most explosive was Guotai Junan International in Hong Kong, which obtained the first virtual asset license, soaring sixfold and then halving...
The enthusiasm of traditional finance for 'crypto concepts' has indeed left a deep impression on me.
On one hand, this is the direction of the trend, indicating that capital has begun to seriously lay out in this track, and in the future, more and more compliant funds will flow into the crypto market from Hong Kong stocks, institutions, and other channels.
On the other hand, this wave of market action has exposed structural issues—capital only chases top coins, while other coins are basically ignored. Bitcoin's bull market is dancing alone, while Ethereum and altcoins are sidelined, leading to a severe market divide.
What will the future of the crypto market look like?
As it stands, for the market to strengthen again, a new narrative or a policy-level positive stimulus is necessary. Otherwise, this situation of 'top coins celebrating while altcoins lay flat' is unlikely to change in the short term.
There are several key time nodes worth paying attention to:
July 1: SUI unlocks $120 million
July 2: ENA unlocks $45.59 million
July 30, September 17: The Federal Reserve may take action to cut interest rates
These are all potential sources of volatility and emotional triggers in the market.
Finally, a reminder: if altcoins don’t rise, don’t wait foolishly; Bitcoin is the only asset that can withstand cycles.
Of course, when the sentiment in altcoins warms up again, it won't be too late for us to jump back in.
That's all for this article! If you're feeling lost in the crypto space, consider planning and harvesting with me!
