25/06/29 is a super year for crypto listings, BTC weekly and monthly are about to close, predictions for market trends in the second half of the year
After Circle's successful IPO, 7 crypto giants are rushing for their IPOs
1. FalconX: Valued at 8 billion, aiming for the NYSE
2. Gemini: Secretly submitted IPO documents aiming for a year-end listing
3. Bullish: Rumored to be worth 10 billion. Former NYSE president personally managing it.
4. Kraken: Sprinting for a 2026 IPO, the parent company has already initiated the listing process.
5. South Korea's Bithumb is rumored to be underwritten by Samsung Securities
6. Thailand's Bitkub is preparing for an IPO
7. Sun Yuchen is preparing to backdoor list 'TRON Inc.' in the US
The cryptocurrency custodian giant BitGo also plans to go public in the second half of 2025, with a valuation of $1.75 billion.
Circle's IPO not only enhances its own capital strength but also boosts brand awareness and market influence, becoming an industry benchmark. Its successful listing encourages investors to be more optimistic about the prospects of the crypto industry, attracting more capital inflows and accelerating the IPO process for leading companies in the industry.
The NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices closed at historic highs on Friday, and it's not surprising that the 26th gentleman predicted these two indices would hit record highs. In February, it was warned that there would be a crash with a 'black swan', and after the big bullish candle on April 9, we look for a rebound to 0.886; after that, the weak adjustment can only continue to look bullish. Historically, US stocks have always been like this, and the next target will be 1.13 as long as it doesn't fall back again, we continue to look bullish.
So it’s quite awkward that Bitcoin surged ahead of the US market, hitting new highs and then falling back into high-level consolidation. Whether the US market will do the same will temporarily depend on whether it can withstand pressure below 1.13. Based on the trends of the past couple of years, it will catch up. Looking at the medium to long term, it’s estimated to be around 180,000—250,000.
Here is a timeline: Last year's bull flag lasted over half a year, and this year, if we include the rapid drop, it has also been over half a year. Interest rate cuts will occur in the second half of the year, and the tariff issue is likely to be extended until September 1. The debt ceiling special measures period is extended until July 24, and the US national debt has exceeded $36 trillion. Although new debt issuance can effectively fill the government's huge fiscal deficit, the large-scale tax reduction proposal from a particularly unreliable government ('Big and Beautiful' proposal) will further exacerbate the deficit. In summary, there are still many uncertainties in July and August, so caution is needed; the gentleman is more optimistic about the market starting in September and October.
Bitcoin
As the weekly and monthly lines are about to close, volatility often intensifies. As long as the monthly line closes above 102000, it is still bullish. The weekly and daily lines are still operating in a flag pattern, and for the past few days, it has been oscillating at high positions near the upper line with fluctuations of over 1000 points.
The daily line shows a bullish flag pattern, but the issue is whether it can directly break through here or continue to maintain the flag pattern. Watch these two supports; a break below 106000—104000 would see a rebound to 94000—96000.
Support: 104000—106000
Resistance: 110000—112000
Ether
From the monthly line, the probability of closing with a doji is high. The first three months formed a morning star, and this month's doji is still a continuation of the upward trend. Assuming Ether has not collapsed, there is a probability of forming a large converging triangle before breaking out later. After breaking below 2800, it has not effectively stood back since being brought down by Bitcoin.
After a daily line drop and rebound, it continues to close with a doji, and there are still opportunities for supplementary gains. The rebound target is still 2700—2880, and many altcoins are also appearing with buying points like JUP, JTO, W...
Support: 2111—2200—2300
Resistance: 2700—2880
