The market is always brewing opportunities in volatility, and SOL is putting on a good show of 'consolidation is accumulation'!
1. Technical analysis: Bollinger Band contraction + MACD golden cross, trend change is imminent
From the 1-hour chart of SOL/USDT perpetual contract, several key signals are worth noting:
Bollinger Band contraction: Upper band 147.99, middle band 136.50, lower band 129.29; the price is currently fluctuating above the middle band; the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands indicates reduced volatility, and the signal for a trend change is strong.
MACD golden cross above zero: DIF 2.45 crosses above DEA 1.37, histogram turns red and expands, indicating that bullish energy is accumulating, but beware of false breakouts.
Key support/resistance:
Resistance level 147.99 previous high + Bollinger upper band
Waterloo 144.2 short-term bullish and bearish boundary
Strong support 139.37 June 27 low rebound level
Technical conclusion: SOL is currently in a 'consolidation phase'; if it holds above 144.2, the probability of breaking through 147.99 increases significantly; if it drops below 139.37, it may test the 138-140 support zone.
2. News front: Solana ecosystem explosion, but beware of short-term bearish signals
Favorable factors:
Solana Q3 ecosystem fund increase: The official announced that the DePIN and AI project funding pool will increase from $500 million to $750 million, directly stimulating ecosystem tokens like JUP and RAY to rise, boosting SOL demand.
Institutional increase: On-chain data shows that Jump Trading bought 120,000 SOL worth about $17.5 million in the last 24 hours, suspected to be preparing for the next wave of upward movement.
Risk warning:
Fed hawkish: If Powell's speech tonight hints at delaying rate cuts, it may trigger a market pullback, and SOL could be affected.
Network congestion: Solana's recent TPS fluctuates between 137-147; if downtime occurs again, it may trigger selling pressure.
3. How to catch SOL's 'golden retracement'?
Great Saint's blood and tears experience: On June 27, when SOL plummeted to $137, I clearly notified the community:
MACD bottom divergence + whale bottom-fishing, 137-139 is the golden buying point, target 147!
As a result, SOL rebounded precisely to 147.99 the next day, with an increase of 7.2%.
Great Saint's viewpoint:
Short-term: Before breaking the pressure point of 142.57, it is not advisable to chase high prices; wait for a low absorption opportunity around 144.2.
Mid-term: If it breaks above 148.5 and holds, the target is 153-158.
4. Future strategy: two scenarios, two approaches
Scenario one: breakout market
Trigger condition: 1-hour closing price > 148.5, and trading volume expands to over 350 million USDT.
Operation: chase long, stop loss at 146, target 153→158.
Scenario two: backtest washout
Trigger condition: Break below 144.2 and MACD death cross.
Operation: Wait and see, wait for the 142.5-140 area to enter long, stop loss at 138.
Position management: No single trade exceeds 10% of total capital, timely stop loss on failed breakouts.
5. Comment area interaction
Soul interrogation:
Do you think this time SOL is a real breakout or a false breakout?
If you hold SOL, will you increase your position or take profit now?
Welcome to leave your strategy in the comment area! You will receive a copy of my (SOL swing trading secrets) PDF!
Follow me, tonight at 8 PM in the fan group to interpret the impact of Powell's speech on SOL, click to make an appointment $SOL #币安Alpha上新
