Markets are born in despair and rise in hesitation!" — ETH's violent surge this morning once again confirms the iron law of the crypto world that "long stagnation must change!"
1. Technical analysis
K-line pattern:
At 2:53 AM, this "pillar of the sky" broke through the ceiling, surging from 2386 to 2391, an increase of nearly 1%, a typical "night raid style surge", obviously the main forces took advantage of retail investors' sleep to launch a surprise attack.
The current price is stuck around 2419, exactly in the "squeeze zone" between the middle band at 2426 and the lower band at 2394, forming a difficult oscillation pattern.
Key indicators:
MACD underwater golden cross: DIF 10.35 crosses above DEA 0.57, but the bars are still green, indicating that the bulls are just getting started and haven't fully exerted strength.
Fibonacci resistance: 61.8% 2392 has already broken through, the next target looks at 50% 2336, but there is a "bloody defense line" red resistance line around 2520, hard to break through without volume.
Bollinger Bands closing: The distance between the upper and lower bands has shrunk to the extreme 2458 vs 2393, the calm before the storm, could change at any moment!
Great Sage's summary:
ETH is currently like a compressed spring, with 2393 as the support below and 2550 as the resistance above. The MACD golden cross gives some hope, but don’t chase the highs easily before seeing a volume explosion!
2. News (Today's latest scoop)
SEC suddenly softens!
This morning, foreign media reported that the SEC asked spot ETF issuers to "speed up the revision of the S-1 document"; the original July deadline may be moved up, and the market speculates that VanEck's ETF may open as early as next week!
Great Sage's interpretation: This news is the real reason for the violent surge at dawn! Major institutions are secretly stocking up, just waiting for the ETF approval to pump and harvest the retail investors.
Vitalik's latest statement
At 3 AM, Vitalik revealed in Discord: The Pectra upgrade may include EIP-7702, bringing staking ETH’s yield back to 5%+.
Great Sage's interpretation: Staking supporters are ecstatic! But there will likely be a "sell on the news, buy on the facts" washout before the upgrade.
Whale movements
On-chain monitoring detected a mysterious address transferred 20,000 ETH to Binance two hours ago, worth $48 million! It may be a large holder preparing to dump and cash out.
Plain spoken summary:
Positive for ETF + negative for large whales dumping; the short-term market is bound to be stimulating! Keep an eye on the SEC's official website and large on-chain transfers; when news breaks, it’s a sprint!
3. Personal opinion
Recent operations
Last week I placed a long order at 2363, closed half of the position at 2386 this morning, making a small profit of 1%.
The remaining position has a take profit at 2456; if it breaks 2363, stop loss is triggered. Strictly follow the discipline of 'take profit when you earn, cut losses when you lose.'
Judgment on the current market situation
Short-term 1-3 days: If it doesn't break 2550, it will be a consolidation, likely to retest 2392 to confirm support.
Mid-term July: If the ETF passes, it will directly look at 3000; if rejected, it may drop to 2100.
Plain spoken harsh words:
"In this market, better to miss out than to make a mistake! Retail investors should not follow the main forces staying up late for surprise attacks; watching the market during the day is safer!"
4. Future strategies
Conservatives
Buy at 2393, stop loss at 2367, target 2456; take profit at 3%.
Mnemonic: Buy at the lower Bollinger band, sell at the middle band, go all out when breaking the upper band!
Aggressive faction
If it breaks 2550 with volume, chase it! But keep the position under 10%, and set the stop loss at 2530.
Warning: 70% chance of false breakout, be careful of "bull traps"!
News faction
Check the SEC's official website and Vitalik's Twitter daily; there will be abnormal movements 5 minutes before policy implementation!
5. Interaction in the comments
Soulful three questions:
Do you think the SEC will approve the ETF this time?
If ETH drops to 2100, would you dare to buy the dip?
What is your current position size?
Netizen "Crypto Monkey": "The day the ETF is approved is the day that the altcoins go to zero!"
Netizen "Ethereum Emperor": "Whenever Vitalik speaks, the K-line starts drawing!"
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