The weekend has come as expected, and market trading sentiment has once again returned to calm. But beneath this calm lies a deeper storm.

Geopolitical tensions have temporarily subsided. Although Israel and Iran are still at odds, the Strait of Hormuz has not been blocked, and oil supply has not been interrupted, U.S. inflation is temporarily safe. But the real powder keg is shifting from the battlefield to the tariff negotiation table.

Trump once proclaimed that a 'new U.S.-China agreement' is about to be finalized, but so far, only 'doves taking flight' remain. Meanwhile, the EU has taken the lead in signaling: it may reduce tariffs on U.S. goods, indicating that the most difficult bone to chew in the trade war is beginning to loosen. The reciprocal tariffs originally set to start on July 6 may likely replay the 'wolf is coming' delay script.

The crypto circle suffers a triple blow: retail investors are rubbed on the ground.

1. Tariff thunderstorm: liquidity is being drained.

Trump suddenly imposed a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, and even threatened to 'deal with the EU'. This combination directly ignited global risk-averse sentiment, with gold and U.S. bonds being frantically purchased, while Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, was slammed.

Don't forget, the previous tariff 'grace period' of 90 days is also nearing its end. Once the policy boot drops, market capital will flow violently again, and BTC and altcoins may collectively 'shake three shakes'.

2. Federal Reserve's hawkish face slap: rate cut expectations shrink.

The market originally expected a 50 basis point rate cut in 2025, but the Federal Reserve gave a cold shower — at most 25 basis points. High interest rates not only suppress the stock market but also 'choke' non-yielding cryptocurrencies.

What’s worse is that the U.S. dollar index is strengthening, and the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks has risen to 0.68. This means that as soon as U.S. stocks sneeze, the crypto circle will catch a cold.

3. Middle East raid: $140 billion evaporated overnight.

Geopolitical risk remains the sword of Damocles hanging over the market. In June, during the Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities, Bitcoin plummeted to $104,000 within 24 hours, and the entire crypto market evaporated $140 billion.

History has proven again that when geopolitical black swans arrive, risk assets are the first to be hit, and the crypto market has almost no resistance.

Liquidity dilemma: the big players feast, while retail investors get no soup.

ETFs have become a 'black hole', with no one managing altcoins.

Do you think institutions are saving the market? Wrong, they are locking positions.

Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with a net purchase amount of $228 million yesterday. These funds are permanently locked in cold wallets, not entering the altcoin market, further exacerbating market polarization.

Bitcoin's dominance rate has risen to 64.89%, reaching a four-year high. Meanwhile, the market cap share of altcoins has plummeted from the peak of the bull market at 38.7% to 14.2%, with capital completely unfavored.

Altcoin 'landmine-style trading' has become the norm.

The slippage for exchanging ETH on Uniswap has reached as high as 1.8%, making normal trading feel like 'snatching red envelopes'. What is even more frustrating is: when BTC drops by 1%, altcoins drop by 5%; when BTC rises by 1%, altcoins remain still.

In this market, who dares to enter? Retail investors have long lost confidence.

Leverage liquidation: altcoin bulls' 'suicidal liquidation'.

In the past week, the violent fluctuations in the crypto market led to a total liquidation of over $2 billion across the network, with 80% coming from altcoin bulls. Programmatic stop-losses accounted for 23% of the selling pressure, forming a 'stop-loss crash → crash triggers stop-loss' death spiral.

When can we catch the bottom? Three indicators must be closely monitored.

  1. The Federal Reserve officially announced a rate cut.
    According to interest rate futures data, the probability of a rate cut in the third quarter is 68%, once the boot drops, it may become the ignition point for the rebound of all risk assets.

  2. BTC effectively broke through the $112,000 mark.
    There must be trading volume to accompany the breakout., otherwise it's all just a false move. A breakout without volume is not trusted by the market.

  3. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has returned above 0.06.
    If Ethereum can outperform Bitcoin, it indicates that capital is starting to flow back into the altcoin market, and the real 'altcoin spring' may be initiated.

This is not the first time the crypto circle has faced a winter, nor will it be the last.

This time, however, there is no hot money impulse, no 'crazy killing' meme frenzy. The current market only has institutions locking positions, retail investors liquidating, and a mess left behind.

But it is precisely in these chaotic moments that real opportunities are born.

Whether to take action is not about watching the K-line rise or fall, but rather — has the boot dropped? Has the emotional turning point appeared? Has the capital started to flow back?

The answer hasn't come yet, but the critical point is getting closer.