On Thursday, US stocks continued to demonstrate strong upward momentum. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both approaching historical highs, and since the significant drop in April, the market has achieved an impressive recovery rally. In particular, the Nasdaq has achieved 12 consecutive weeks of gains, closing at a new high since December last year, leaving bears bewildered by such performance.
Even with frequent geopolitical conflicts and escalating tariffs and trade frictions, US stocks seem to be continuously rising as if 'energized.' The Nasdaq is gradually approaching the psychological barrier of 20,000 points, but considering cyclical and policy factors, this barrier may not be easily broken. After all, the Federal Reserve has not officially cut interest rates, and while Trump has started 'talking up' the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chairman, the actual policy implementation remains to be observed.
Bitcoin's trend remains weak, with $108,000 becoming a key pressure point.
In contrast to the strong performance of US stocks, the daily structure of Bitcoin (BTC) has still not escaped the downward trend. High points continue to decline, and currently, $108,000 has become an important short-term resistance level, making it challenging to break through.
SAHARA's initial launch plummeted, and the selling pressure behind it cannot be underestimated.
The new project $SAHARA launched with great fanfare yesterday, almost simultaneously landing on all major exchanges, triggering a brief market excitement. However, the enthusiasm has not yet dissipated, and the price has quickly declined, revealing a hidden massive selling pressure being rapidly released by the market.
Binance ALPHA airdrop release: approximately 74.9 million tokens, estimated to release a market value equivalent to approximately $10 million in direct selling pressure;
Buidlpad public offering part: At a $600 million FDV, only $8.5 million was raised, with a low average purchase cost, resulting in an average floating profit of over 2 times, estimated selling pressure of around $20 million;
Tokens reserved by the project party: initially releasing 1.4% of the tokens, approximately equivalent to $20 million in potential selling pressure.
Comprehensive calculations show that the initially foreseeable selling pressure funds are close to $50 million. Even if it covers multiple exchanges, it will be difficult for the market to digest it completely in the short term. The contract market trends also suggest the possibility of hedging short positions (this is merely speculation). Given the current tight liquidity, the project party seems to have no clear intention to drive up market value, and the risks of chasing higher prices are significant, requiring extra caution.
Altcoins have begun to move in concert, and the following cryptocurrencies are worth focusing on.
As the market direction becomes clearer, some altcoins have begun to show independent movements or significant signs of capital involvement, which are worth paying close attention to:
1. $HYPE: Lion Group makes a substantial position, establishing long-term buying logic.
Recently, $HYPE is worth paying close attention to. The US-listed company Lion Group (LGHL) announced that it bought $2 million worth of HYPE tokens at an average price of $37.3, marking its first position-building action from its $600 million convertible bond funds.
More crucially, they have publicly stated that they will continue to increase their holdings of $HYPE, $SOL, and $SUI in the future, viewing these coins as 'next-generation Layer 1 core assets.' More aggressively, in the future, 75% of the returns from convertible bonds will be used to buy these three types of assets, indicating that buying pressure will exhibit long-term and systematic characteristics.
Currently in the early stages of building positions, any pullbacks may present good buying opportunities.
2. ICP: Channel fluctuations are evident, with the midline being a key observation point.
#ICP Daily structure maintains a clear sideways channel. Currently testing the support area at the lower edge of the channel. If it stabilizes, it is expected to return to the channel midline or even the upper edge.
If the daily closing price stands above the midline, it means that the bullish momentum begins to dominate, and subsequent upward space will open up, making it a mid-term opportunity worth waiting for confirmation.
3. LTC: Descending wedge fluctuations, ready to break through at any time.
#LTC is currently 'locked' in a converging descending wedge, with prices oscillating between two trend lines while stabilizing above the 9-day moving average. If it can break out of the upper wedge and stand above the previous resistance level, it could quickly reverse the trend and turn bullish.
If a subsequent pullback can stabilize, it will constitute a clear buy signal.
4. HBAR: After breaking, it is still dominated by bears, and it is not advisable to rush into bottom-fishing.
#HBAR had warning risks when the ascending channel was complete, and now it has indeed broken down, validating previous expectations.
From a structural perspective, it is still bear-dominated, and there are no obvious reversal signals. Prices remain suppressed below the channel, and the trend center continues to shift downward. Unless there is a strong rebound and structural turnaround, holding onto short positions remains more prudent.
The current cryptocurrency market is in a phase of differentiation, with the strength of US stocks contrasting with the weakness of BTC. Furthermore, the significant drop of new projects like SAHARA post-launch also reflects tight liquidity and unstable market sentiment.
At this point, the flow of funds and the fundamental logic of the project are particularly important. Cryptocurrencies like HYPE and ICP, which possess medium-term layout logic or signs of structural strengthening, are worth spending time researching and waiting for entry signals.