The current market trend is becoming increasingly difficult to predict accurately!
I once thought that if Trump was elected, he would light a fire under the market with a strong 'support for crypto' attitude, starting an unprecedented bull market—just like past bull markets where altcoins were everywhere, outside capital flocked in, and everyone enjoyed financial freedom.
But reality feels like a changed script; we’ve walked into the wrong set.
Although BTC rose from 100,000 to 108,000, the overall performance of altcoins remains weak, and ETH hasn't shown much movement. This round of increases is clearly a 'Bitcoin solo dance'; most altcoins haven't followed suit, except for a few solid projects like AAVE that have real demand backing them.
In this volatile market, a relatively effective strategy is to short new coins or focus on coins that are about to undergo significant unlocking.
For example, going long on strong coins like AAVE and BCH (AAVE is a lending leader and is linked to USD1, while BCH data shows continued accumulation by major players), while shorting some coins that are still below the EMA and clearly trending weak, like ZRO and ACX, which are about to unlock soon. A combination of long and short positions makes it easier to maintain rhythm.
Okay, let's continue. Why does it feel like we've walked into the wrong set?
After the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved, the flow of funds is completely different from what we expected: they haven't flowed into the familiar CEX or DEX, but have directly treated Bitcoin as a US stock.
Off-market funds only entered the 'first layer'.
This wave of funds has indeed come in, but it mainly stayed in the 'first layer'—the US stock market. Even Coinbase hasn't seen much benefit, let alone the crypto platforms we commonly use. This has led to a strange phenomenon: traditional capital is buying Bitcoin through ETFs while letting crypto concept stocks and stablecoin leaders' stock prices soar.
For many outside investors, they would rather buy stocks related to crypto than jump into the crypto space to buy those incomprehensible 'sector altcoins'. Even though they know the stock market carries risks, the crypto space still feels too strange and chaotic in comparison.
The US stock market is 'eating' the crypto dividends.
Recently, a new team focused on carbon neutrality arrived next door, and they were excited to talk about crypto. They immediately asked if there were any stablecoin-related stocks to buy. I told them that there are stablecoin concept altcoins in the crypto space, and they hesitated, saying they weren't really used to buying coins and preferred stocks.
This kind of psychology is very common; even knowing that there are pitfalls in the stock market, ordinary people are still more willing to trust the 'compliance' label. This is also why in past bull markets, outside capital wanting to buy crypto assets beyond Bitcoin could only 'lower themselves' to buy various altcoins in the crypto space.
This time is different; the policy relaxation allows them to directly participate in crypto layout on Nasdaq without needing to take a detour.
A new round of 'capital integration' has begun.
Currently, the hot money in crypto is mostly flowing into the US stock market. Whether it's AI, stablecoins, or Web3 projects, the market leaders are getting bigger. Just look at last night; the three major US indices reached all-time highs, and Nvidia is close to a $4 trillion market cap, while Bitcoin barely surpassed $2 trillion.
Not only traditional capital has entered, but even native crypto VCs have been siphoned over to the US stock market. This is an era of global capital integration, and we are witnessing a new trend: in the future, all quality crypto projects will ultimately aim to land on the US stock market.
The layout strategy is changing.
It's like when we guessed whether projects would go live on BN or Upbit; now we need to start anticipating: which projects might land on Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange in the future?
Currently visible are:
Applied crypto-related ETF projects (considered a 'coin-stock' concept).
Top public chains and DeFi with a US background.
Assets laid out by Grayscale.
Strong resource projects like WLFI and Circle.
This wave, we should learn how to position ourselves for opportunities in the crypto space within the stock market.
The crypto space is not about who is the most versatile, but about who can excel in their area of expertise.
📍 Some excel in primary research.
📍 Some love to hunt on-chain.
📍 Some play market control, while others write contracts.
📍 Some can issue coins, while others write code.
Don't be anxious about those who have already made money.
They may not be smarter than you; they might just have arrived a few years earlier.
But in every cycle, there will always be a wave of dividends that belongs to you.
💥 As long as you don't give up and keep holding your position, your time will come.
📢 The crypto space lacks hotspots, but it lacks people who can understand trends.
That's all for the article! If you're confused in the crypto space, consider collaborating with me to layout and harvest from the market makers!
