Bitcoin's recent price performance and on-chain activities indicate that BTC has reached a critical threshold to break above the $110,000 level.
Despite a slight slowdown in MVRV momentum and declining transfer volumes, experts are optimistic that Bitcoin could enter a new price discovery process in 2025.
According to COINOTAG data, the $108,000 to $110,000 range becoming a solid support is vital for the continuation of upward momentum and breaking new records.
Bitcoin’s MVRV momentum and on-chain data indicate that there is strong resistance at $110,000. Analysts emphasize that an increase in volume is needed to overcome this barrier.
A Bull Cycle is Observed in Bitcoin's MVRV Momentum
The ratio of Bitcoin's market value to its realized value (MVRV) is showing signs of slowing down as an important indicator measuring profitability and market sentiment. This situation indicates that Bitcoin has transitioned to the maturing stages of its bull cycle rather than signaling a sudden drop. Currently, the MVRV ratio is at 2.22; this is significantly below the historically overvalued level of 3.7, indicating that there is still significant room for growth.
CryptoQuant experts indicate that the revival in MVRV momentum will increase investor confidence and support long-term holding tendencies, which will reduce selling pressure. Combined with strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, these factors may help BTC surpass its previous peak of $112,000 and guide it toward the $165,000 target indicated by market experts.
A Decrease in On-Chain Transfer Volume Indicates a Reduction in Speculative Trades
Recent on-chain data shows a significant decrease of about 32% in Bitcoin's on-chain transfer volume; the volume, which was $76 billion by the end of May, has decreased to about $52 billion. This decline parallels the overall cooling of spot trading volumes in the current bull market. The spot trading volume is hovering around $7.7 billion, which is quite low compared to previous cycle peaks.
Glassnode's weekly on-chain report reveals that previous historical price peaks in 2024 were not supported by increases in spot volumes; this suggests that investors are behaving more cautiously and are waiting for strong confirmation signals.
Market data provider Alva highlights the importance of volume, stating, "A high-volume move above $107,500 will be a critical factor that triggers price action technically." This view confirms that solid and high trading volumes are conditions for a sustainable price increase.
$110,000 Level: A Critical Barrier for Bitcoin Bulls
The Bitcoin price is currently moving in a narrow band between $100,000 and $110,000. The upper limit of this range stands out as a strong resistance. For BTC to sustain its bull market, it is crucial to convert the $108,000 to $110,000 range into a solid support level.
Leading analysts like AlphaBTC and Rekt Capital agree that overcoming this resistance is critical for Bitcoin to initiate a sustainable rise toward new historical peaks. AlphaBTC notes that a slight pullback in the $104,000-$105,000 range could gain momentum, and four-hour closes above $109,000 would be a strong bullish signal.
Michael van de Poppe, the founder of MN Capital, shares a similar view; he states that price movements above $109,000 will trigger upward momentum. Additionally, the liquidity density at $111,000 increases the importance of this resistance, making it a critical threshold for traders and investors.
Investor Sentiment and Market Outlook
While Bitcoin’s overall bullish trend continues, the current situation is characterized by cautious optimism. Changes in MVRV momentum, on-chain transfer volumes, and interactions in spot trading activities will play a significant role in determining BTC’s short-term price direction. Positive developments in these metrics will enhance market confidence and support Bitcoin’s entry into a new price discovery phase.
Investors are advised to closely monitor volume indicators, as high trading volumes often precede significant price movements. Consolidation in the $108,000-$110,000 range indicates a critical period testing Bitcoin’s strength and investor resolve.
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