Bitcoin Rises with Ceasefire News: Eyes on Possible Double Top Formation
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a remarkable recovery, rising from $100,000 to $107,000 following ceasefire news between Israel and Iran at the beginning of the week. However, after this rise, the search for direction in the market continues, and analysts are particularly focused on technical formations.
A Major Crash Is Not Expected Without a Black Swan
Katalin Tischhauser, Head of Investment Research at Sygnum, emphasized in a statement to CoinDesk that a large-scale crash in the crypto market could only be possible with an unexpected and destructive 'black swan' event. Tischhauser made the following assessment:
'Crypto markets move highly in an emotion-focused manner. Therefore, warning signs like double tops in technical analysis should be closely monitored. However, unless a major destructive event like Terra or FTX occurs, it is likely that we will see a long-term bull trend with the current political support and institutional capital flow.'
Concerns About Bitcoin's Double Top: A New Turning Point?
Bitcoin's recent consolidation in the range of $100,000 – $110,000 has led some analysts to warn about the potential formation of a double top. This technical formation indicates that the upward trend is weakening and the price may enter a downward trend.
Famous trader and analyst Peter Brandt points out a risk of up to 75% decline in BTC price if this structure is confirmed. According to Brandt's analysis, the formation of a second peak at $110,000 followed by a drop below $75,000 could indicate that this technical formation has come into play. In such a scenario, Bitcoin's price could fall to as low as $27,000.
Tischhauser: 'It Is Too Early for Panic'
Katalin Tischhauser acknowledges that technical formations are of a warning nature but argues that there is no need for panic. According to her:
'Without systemic crashes like those experienced in 2022, such technical indicators may not be sufficient to initiate a large selling wave on their own. Especially considering the long-term positions of institutional investors and regulatory improvements, Bitcoin's upward trend may continue.'
Result: Directional Uncertainty Continues in BTC
Bitcoin's current price movement presents a complex view influenced by both technical and macroeconomic developments. If the support above $100,000 is maintained, it is possible for BTC to aim for new peaks. However, falling below $75,000 could increase bearish expectations.
Among the most important factors that will determine the direction of the market are investor psychology, institutional capital movements, and possible global uncertainties.
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