Critical Resistance for New Peaks in Bitcoin: $110,000 Must Be Surpassed

As Bitcoin loses momentum at the $112,000 level, experts emphasize that breaking the $110,000 resistance and a significant increase in trading volume are necessary for the continuation of the rise. Current technical indicators and market data may indicate that we have entered the final phase of the bull cycle.

Bitcoin, which fell below $74,000 in April, has climbed to about $112,000 with nearly a 50% increase since that time. However, this rally has slowed down, and investors are expecting stronger signals for new peaks.

MVRV Indicator Weakens: Is This the Finale of the Bull Cycle?

With the decrease in geopolitical risks, Bitcoin has rebounded and surpassed its 50-day moving average at the $106,000 level. However, according to CryptoQuant data, the ratio of Bitcoin's market value to realized value (MVRV) is on a downward trend. Analyst Yonsei_dent states that this does not mean a decline in the short term; rather, it indicates that the bull cycle is maturing.

The MVRV ratio is currently at 2.22, which is well below the historically considered overvaluation zone of 3.7. This means there is still room for growth. The prolonged holding period of investors' coins and the decrease in selling pressure, combined with strong inflows into spot ETFs, could push Bitcoin beyond $112,000 and bring it closer to the potential target of $165,000.

Decline in Transfer and Spot Volumes: Is the Demand Wave Weakening?

According to on-chain data, the transfer volume on the Bitcoin network has decreased to $52 billion with a 32% drop from the $76 billion reached at the end of May. At the same time, spot trading volume hovers around $7.7 billion, which is significantly behind previous bull market peaks.

In its latest report, Glassnode stated, "Transaction volume played a significant role in rallies that reached all-time highs in the past. However, the recent rise occurred without sufficient volume support. This indicates that market interest is declining."

Analysis platform Alva commented, "Excitement alone is not enough for a real breakout. A strong volume rise above $107,500 would be an important technical signal," he said.

Critical Level: Between $108,000 and $110,000

Bitcoin is currently trading in a range between $100,000 and $110,000, and this area has become a strong support zone. However, for a sustainable rise to occur, the resistance at the $108,000–$110,000 range needs to turn into support.

Analyst AlphaBTC stated in a statement on X platform, "It won't be easy to surpass these levels. We may likely see a short-term correction to gather liquidity in the $104,000–$105,000 range first," he said.

Popular analyst Rekt Capital commented, "Breaking the last major weekly resistance above $108,000 will pave the way for new record levels," while MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe noted that a breakout above $109,000 could trigger upward momentum.

"It may be a matter of a breakout moment."

According to Cointelegraph, the $108,000–$110,000 band has become the main target area for institutional and individual investors due to high liquidity clusters.

In summary: Volume and Demand are Essential for New Peaks

Although Bitcoin's technical outlook remains positive, it needs not only price but also volume and investor interest to accompany it to reach new record levels. A recovery in on-chain indicators like MVRV and a revival in spot volume could elevate BTC to much higher levels in 2025 if it surpasses $110,000.


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