Regulation is like a mother-in-law watching her son-in-law; if she’s pleased, it’s an advantage, if not, it’s a shackle! September 30th, the 'first look' from the U.S. Senate is crucial; we have to be fully alert!
Brothers, the Monkey King has received insider information! The big shots in the U.S. Senate who manage the money have spoken up; the long-discussed ‘crypto family rules’ (market structure bill) will definitely be drafted before September 30th! The crypto world has exploded, some are shouting ‘the bull is back’, while others are lamenting ‘it’s over’. Don’t panic, the Monkey King will break it down for you in plain terms, whether this thing is ‘Mrs. Bull’ or ‘Sweetie’ for the coins in our wallets!
The core is two words: decentralization! Set rules!
Decentralization: The SEC regulates stocks and is strict, while the CFTC regulates commodities and is more lenient, fighting for ‘jurisdiction’ over our crypto space, and they are about to clash! What are Bitcoin and Ethereum? Are they stocks or commodities? The bill aims to clarify this muddled situation.
The Monkey King's viewpoint: If BTC and ETH are handed over to the CFTC, the market will definitely celebrate! If they go to the SEC? Haha, wait to tremble! Just think about Binance being fined over $4 billion and Coinbase being sued by the SEC every day, and you’ll understand!
Set rules: How do exchanges operate now? How are stablecoins like USDT and USDC issued? How is DeFi decentralized finance handled? It all depends on ‘market rules’; they can restrict or investigate at will! This bill aims to establish clear ‘house rules’ on paper, telling you what you can do and what will lead to your demise.
The Monkey King thinks: Once the rules are clear, only ‘regular troops’ like Grayscale and BlackRock will dare to invest real money! This is a long-term good thing!
Short term, the next two months: A thrilling game, I’m bullish!
Why is there a rise? It’s all about ‘expectations’!
The market loves a good story! Before September 30th, the main players will definitely hype the script of ‘regulation landing, institutions entering’. Remember last year’s intense hype over Bitcoin ETF expectations? This time, the script has changed but the substance remains! BTC, ETH, and those seemingly ‘purebred’ coins are likely to be pushed up.
If the news comes out that the CFTC wants to be the ‘talking boss’, then it’s even better! Who wouldn’t want to avoid the SEC’s ‘plague god’?
The Monkey King has made a decision: I’m optimistic in the short term! Especially for mainstream coins, riding this wave of ‘policy tailwind’, there’s a good chance of a ‘sentiment bull’! But remember, this is ‘wind’, not ‘foundation’; it can come quickly and go just as fast!
Potential risks, beware of a crash!
‘House rules’ are too harsh: If the draft comes out in September, classifying a bunch of cryptocurrencies as ‘securities’ under the SEC, or putting a ‘golden handcuff’ on exchanges (like exorbitant compliance costs), that scene would be too beautiful to behold! It would directly scare the market!
The wolf is here, ultimate edition: Brothers, wake up! September 30th is just a 'draft'! It's not the law! This broken draft has to be voted on in their little circle, then debated throughout the Senate, and then wrestled with those in the House, and finally, the president has to give the nod... Just look at the stark rivalry between the two parties in the U.S., and with the chaos of the upcoming elections at the end of the year.
The Monkey King dares to bet fifty cents: This bill will 1000% not pass this year! When everyone realizes it again, they will find they have been fooled, and the ‘policy bull’ will instantly turn into a ‘disheartened bull’, dropping without discussion!
‘Good news turns into bad news’: Even if the draft seems okay, on the day it’s officially announced, it might be treated as a ‘sell signal’. Has it been hyped too much beforehand? Perfect for cashing out! A temporary price drop isn’t surprising.
SEC’s sneak attack: Don’t forget, while the bill is being debated, the SEC hasn’t been idle! If they suddenly strike hard against Coinbase or Binance, or declare a certain mainstream coin as a security, all good expectations will go down the drain! Lawsuits hang over like a sword!
Long term (after the draft): Don’t be too optimistic; see the real skills!
If things really progress: If the draft is well-written, with the CFTC in charge, rules reasonable, and both parties surprisingly able to sit down and talk (a miracle!), then that would definitely be a long-term epic boon! It would prove that America really wants to ‘reconcile’ with the crypto space, laying the groundwork for a future super bull market.
The Monkey King's viewpoint:
The draft is likely to be ‘muddy’ or overly strict. Do those old-timers really understand our crypto space? I highly doubt it!
Legislation this year? Dream on! Doing this in an election year? It’s better to buy a lottery ticket! The probability of the ‘draft’ turning into ‘toilet paper’ is very high.
So, in the long run, we still have to wear this ‘regulatory uncertainty’ hat! Want the price to skyrocket? It still needs real skills: the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates and flooding the market, Bitcoin’s next ‘halving’ cycle, or another blockbuster application like DeFi Summer! Policies? Just a short-term stimulant!
The Monkey King's advice to Iron Brothers:
On September 30th, keep a close eye on the ‘house rules’ details! Pay special attention: Who regulates BTC and ETH? Will stablecoins be choked? Will DeFi be forced to implement KYC (better to die than that)? Details determine life and death!
Don’t get carried away in the short term! You can trade on expectations, but enter and exit quickly, and manage your stop loss! Don’t really believe the ‘institutions are coming soon’. Think about it, before the LUNA crash, wasn’t there a lot of ‘good news’?
Diversify your bets! Don’t bet all your money on policies. Federal Reserve rate hikes and cuts, war conflicts, or even Elon Musk acting crazy can change everything in the crypto world! Put your eggs in different baskets!
The SEC is the biggest variable! While the bill is dragging on, the SEC’s actions are a bombshell! Once they act, all expectations are useless! Keep a close watch on their lawsuits and statements!
‘On September 30th, the draft will be revealed! Is it the ‘key to unlocking a bull market’ or the ‘hammer to smash the market’? The Monkey King will definitely be the first to dissect the draft with keen insight, whether it’s a good buying opportunity or a signal to escape! Follow the Monkey King, as I help you see through policy smokescreens, and keep pace with the market! In the fan group, I’ll live stream to teach you how to understand the ‘regulatory code’, so you won’t be a victim but a reaper! Don’t wait until you’ve been cut before recalling the Monkey King’s advice!’
