Brothers, today's ETH market is quite interesting! Just woke up this morning to see the price repeatedly grinding around 2450, with a bunch of signals fighting in the 15-minute K-line chart. Without further ado, let's get straight to the point and break down today's ETH trend from three dimensions: technical analysis, news analysis, and operational strategy!
1. Technical Analysis: Bulls are gathering strength, keep a close eye on the key level of 2500!
Fibonacci Key Levels:
Support: 38.2% is a short-term lifeline, the two retracements in the morning didn't break, indicating strong defense from the bulls.
Resistance: After breaking through 23.6% in the morning, the price is now fluctuating around 2454, the next target is directly looking at the previous high of 2519 before 2500.
Break Point: If it stabilizes above 2500, it is likely to surge to 2550-2600, but if it is a false break, be careful of a retracement to 2392!
MACD Secrets:
After the golden cross below the zero line, the DIF line (white line) just climbed above the zero line, but the red bars are shrinking, indicating insufficient bullish momentum, and a short-term pullback may occur to gather strength.
As the saying goes: "A golden cross below zero is likely to retrace," today's trend is textbook level, brothers keep a close watch!
Bollinger Bands Opening:
The middle track (2377) supports the price, the upper track (2509) acts as a resistance level, and the Bollinger Bands are slightly opening, indicating a trend change signal is coming!
Technical Summary: If 2392 doesn't break, it’s bullish, and if 2500 stabilizes, it will continue to surge! But MACD indicates a potential short-term pullback, don’t mindlessly FOMO!
2. News: ETF funds entering + upgrade expectations, bullish bombardment!
ETF Fund Confirmation:
Last night, BlackRock officially announced the opening of ETH ETF subscriptions on July 2nd, institutional channels are open, and large funds are about to enter the market!
On-chain Data: A whale address just transferred 50,000 ETH to Coinbase, suspected to be institutional accumulation, which is bullish for the medium to long term.
Pectra Upgrade Countdown:
Vitalik confirmed in a tweet this morning that EIP-7251 will be included in the Pectra upgrade, and the staking APR may skyrocket, which is bullish for the coin price.
Currently, the ETH staking rate is only 26%, compared to SOL's 70%, leaving a huge room for catch-up!
Macro Assistance:
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has surged to 80%, the dollar index has fallen, and risk assets are collectively soaring, with BTC leading the way to 100,000, and ETH following suit!
News Summary: In the short term, watch ETF funds; in the long term, focus on upgrades + interest rate cuts, hold onto spot positions firmly without trembling!
3. Personal Opinion: A pullback is an opportunity, but beware of false spikes!
Bull-Bear Logic:
Bullish Reasons: ETF + upgrade + macro three arrows fired together, the trend hasn't broken.
Bearish Risk: 2500 is a psychological barrier, if it fails to break, it may pull back to 2350.
Trading Records:
In the morning, I took a long position at 2395, reduced half at 2450, and moved the stop loss up to 2400, targeting 2500.
If it breaks 2500 with volume, prepare to chase long to 2550, but strictly bring a stop loss!
The Great Sage frankly says: In a bull market, there are many crashes, don't go all-in! Keep 30% cash to prevent false spikes!
4. Future Strategy: Two scenarios, pick your side!
Scenario 1 Successful Breakthrough:
Adding Positions: After breaking 2500, if it retraces to 2480 without breaking, enter long positions with a target of 2550-2600.
Stop Loss: 2460 to prevent false breaks.
Scenario 2 Pullback to Wash Out:
Buy Points: Place orders in batches between 2392-2350, stop loss at 2330, looking for a rebound at 2450.
Spot Traders: Invest regularly below 2350, hold on for 3000!
Key Reminder: The ETF subscription on July 2 is a significant node, there may be fluctuations beforehand, don’t get shaken out!
5. Interaction in the Comments: Bottom-fishing or top-escaping?
"Brothers, do you think ETH can stabilize at 2500 today?"
If you're bullish, hit 1, target 2600!
If you're bearish, hit 2, waiting for a pullback to 2300!
Come and leave a message, tonight’s live stream will draw 3 ETH red envelopes!
Follow the Great Sage, reply "ETF" to receive (Top 10 opportunities for wealth in ETH in the second half of the year)
Final Summary:
Short-term: High sell low buy between 2450-2500, with stop loss!
Long-term: Invest regularly below 2392, holding onto coins in a bull market is better than active trading!
Risk: Beware of a pullback after the July ETF good news is fully priced in!
Remember the Great Sage's words: Markets are born in despair, rise in hesitation, and die in madness!
