Family, lately the global focus has been drawn to the situation in the Middle East, right?
The conflict between Israel and Iran has directly ignited the cryptocurrency market's 'war mode'. Bitcoin plunged from $112,000 to $98,000, and then violently rebounded to $106,000 after the ceasefire agreement, making it a version of 'Fast and Furious' in the crypto world! Today, let's review this thrilling market game.
1. Panic Selling VS Institutional Bottom Fishing
On the first day of the outbreak of conflict, the entire network experienced a liquidation of $1.015 billion, with 243,000 investors wiped out, and the long position ratio reached as high as 89%. But dramatically, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF managed to attract $560 million in funds against the trend, forming a 'death spiral' between institutional funding and retail investors' liquidation. This torn market sentiment is a typical reaction of cryptocurrency in times of crisis—short-term panic coexists with long-term value.
2. The Chain Reaction of Crude Oil-Inflation-Monetary Policy
Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, putting 20% of global oil supply at risk, causing crude oil prices to soar to $120 per barrel. Renewed inflation concerns cooled expectations for Fed rate cuts, placing Bitcoin as a high-risk asset at the forefront. However, strangely, when the market realized that the war did not trigger a global economic disaster, funds quickly flowed back into the crypto market, forming a V-shaped reversal.
3. The Underlying Narrative of On-chain Warfare
Iran's largest exchange, Nobitex, suffered a $90 million loss due to a hacker attack, which made the market realize that when traditional financial infrastructures collapse, Bitcoin miners can transform into distributed communication nodes, supporting economic activities in war-torn regions. This suddenly materialized Bitcoin's 'war value', reminiscent of Ukraine raising $127 million in aid through cryptocurrency.
2. Understanding the Underlying Logic of the Crypto World from War
1. Bitcoin's Safe-Haven Property is Tested Again
In this conflict, Bitcoin's volatility was only ±3%, far lower than the 10% during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. The involvement of institutional investors (such as the Texas government's $10 million Bitcoin reserve) is diluting the impact of war sentiment. Bitcoin is evolving from a 'speculative asset' to 'digital gold'.
2. Stablecoins Become a Lifeline for Liquidity in Wartime
During the war, USDT transfer volume surged by 440% weekly, with the Iranian public exchanging stablecoins at a premium on P2P platforms to evade sanctions. This reminds us that in extreme conditions, stablecoins resemble 'digital cash' more than Bitcoin, suggesting a 10%-20% allocation of USDT in holdings as emergency funds.
This indicates that the short-term impact of geopolitical events will eventually be digested by the market, while the long-term trend depends on supply-demand structures and institutional funding dynamics. The supply contraction effect after the 2024 halving is still at play, and the continuous accumulation by institutions like the Texas government is building a solid bottom for Bitcoin.
Finally, to emphasize: in this era filled with uncertainty, cryptocurrency is both a risk asset and a 'digital Noah's Ark' in chaotic times. Learning to find opportunities in panic and stay clear-headed in greed is essential for steady progress through the turbulent waves of the crypto world!#加密市场回调 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #香港加密概念股 #上市公司山寨币财库 #下一任美联储主席人选
