A major change is about to begin.
The national team has started to enter the market.
The former heroes of this industry
Ultimately, one must 'land ashore' and live in the sunlight.
It's just that for most people,
The benefits of the grassroots period may be coming to an end.
What impact does this have on our crypto market? Da Sheng's personal opinion:
1. Capital diversion? Just a drizzle! Traditional stock markets will definitely attract capital like in the super bull markets of '07 and '15. But with the current small fluctuations in Hong Kong's 'crypto stocks' and the unexpected rise of Cathay Pacific, the impact on our cryptocurrency pool is basically negligible. Those who are trading contracts are still trading contracts, and those who are hoarding coins are still hoarding coins.
2. Emotional impact? A bit, but don't get too carried away! Positively, traditional large institutions (like Guotai Junan brokers) even participating in ETF custody can be seen as giving credibility to the crypto market, making us seem more like 'regular troops', which is a good thing in the long run. On the flip side? If these 'crypto stocks' or other sectors of the stock market really continue to rise significantly, it may attract some speculative funds that love to chase hot trends and have a high-risk appetite, temporarily reducing the 'fresh water' in the crypto market. But this part of the money was originally fast in and out, and won't affect the foundation.
3. Hong Kong hub? The future is promising, but don't expect too much at the moment! Hong Kong's development of a crypto ETF has strategic significance, providing a compliant entry point for funds, especially for Asian and Chinese investors. BUT! Right now, the daily trading volume is only a few million USD, quite quiet. It won't make a significant impact unless one day the mainland funds can come through Hong Kong to play 'legitimately' (you know, there are many restrictions), then it would be a nuclear-level good news. For now... it's just a pipe dream, so just listen.
What is the core contradiction in the current cryptocurrency market? Da Sheng thinks there are two points:
1. Short-term pressure is immense:
1. Mentougou (Mt.Gox): Creditors have waited ten years and are finally about to start returning coins (140,000 Bitcoins!), even if not all are dumped into the market, the psychological pressure and market worries are very real.
2. German government: Holding 50,000 Bitcoins (confiscated), recently starting to transfer to exchanges, could sell at any time.
3. US stock ETF: Recently not very promising, with continuous outflows (over ten billion USD in June), the buying power is weakening.
2. Long-term support is also quite strong:
1. Federal Reserve interest rate cut: The market bets that there will likely be a cut in September; if true, it will open the global tap a bit wider, which is a huge benefit for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies)!
2. US election year: Historically, in election years, policies tend to be 'loosened', which is friendly to the market.
3. Institutional demand: The ETF frameworks of giants like BlackRock and Fidelity are set up, waiting for the wind (like interest rate cuts), and the potential demand for large capital allocation is huge.
Da Sheng summarizes:
Keep your eyes open, don't be fooled by 'digital games'! The Cathay situation is a lesson; even 'fake surges' in the stock market can deceive people, and we in the crypto market need to carefully verify information, don't just follow the wind.
Hong Kong's 'crypto stocks' ≠ the barometer of the crypto market! Their rises and falls are just for fun, so don't take them as a basis for operations. If you really want to judge the market, focus on the inflows and outflows of Bitcoin ETFs in the US stock market, the movements of on-chain big whales, and whether the Federal Reserve will take a dovish stance; these are the hard indicators.
In the short term (especially in July), take it easy! Mentougou repayments, Germany selling coins, ETF outflows—these three mountains are pressing down. Although Bitcoin has held at $107,000, the risk of correction is quite significant. Do a good job in position management, and don't leverage too aggressively.
Long-term believers, a drop is a friend! If Bitcoin really gets pushed down by these negative news, for example, to the range of $105,000 - $106,500, Da Sheng thinks it could actually be a good opportunity to build positions gradually and pick up cheap chips. The stories of interest rate cuts and the elections in the second half of the year are likely not over yet!
"Bitcoin bouncing repeatedly above $108,000, is it 'the sage pointing the way' or 'the sickle raised high'? The 'ten-year brew' Bitcoin from Mentougou is about to be released, is it 'a pie' or 'a trap'? Stay tuned to Da Sheng, next time we'll analyze on-chain data to see if the big whales are really hungry or just sharpening their knives secretly! How much do you think this correction will reach? Let's chat in the comments!"
