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Bearish
International News
1. Middle East Situation - ① Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran currently has no plans to restart nuclear negotiations. ③ Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei makes his first appearance after the ceasefire, stating that the U.S. attack on nuclear facilities has 'minimal effect,' and that Trump is just performing. ④ CNN: The U.S. plans to discuss easing sanctions on Iran to allow it to return to nuclear talks.
2. Federal Reserve - ① Barkin: The possible neutral interest rate estimate will slowly rise over time; tariffs will start to push up inflation. ② Goolsbee: If the inflation rate stays within the 2% range and uncertainty is resolved, the Fed will move toward rate cuts; Trump's early announcement of Powell's successor will not affect the FOMC. ③ Daly: A rate cut in the fall looks promising. ④ Collins: A rate cut in July may be premature.
3. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen requests Congress to remove the '899 retaliation tax clause.'
4. Tariffs - ① Indian officials: U.S.-India trade negotiations are at an impasse. The U.S. claims it is about to reach an agreement with them. ② Foreign media: The EU is considering lowering tariffs on U.S. imports in hopes of quickly reaching a trade agreement with the U.S. ③ White House: There are no plans to extend the tariff suspension period that ends on July 9; any changes will be decided by the President. ④ Lutnik: Optimistic about reaching a trade agreement with the EU, with multiple agreements to be announced next week. ⑤ von der Leyen states she is ready to reach an agreement with the U.S., while preparing for the possibility of not reaching an agreement. Macron says the best U.S.-EU agreement is zero tariffs on zero tariffs.
5. The EU summit failed to reach consensus on a new round of sanctions against Russia, the EU agreed to extend existing sanctions against Russia for six months.
6. The U.S. goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May, with exports experiencing the largest decline since the pandemic; first-quarter GDP data revised down.
Risk Warning
☆ 20:30, the U.S. will release the May Core PCE Price Index. The market expects a year-on-year rate of 2.60%, previous value 2.50%; expected month-on-month rate of 0.10%, previous value 0.10%;
☆ 21:15, 2026 FOMC voting member, Cleveland Fed President Mester and Fed Governor Lisa Cook will attend the 'Fed Listens' event;
☆ 22:00, the U.S. will release the final value of the June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, with market expectations set at 60.5, previous value 60.5.
$BTC
1. Middle East Situation - ① Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran currently has no plans to restart nuclear negotiations. ③ Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei makes his first appearance after the ceasefire, stating that the U.S. attack on nuclear facilities has 'minimal effect,' and that Trump is just performing. ④ CNN: The U.S. plans to discuss easing sanctions on Iran to allow it to return to nuclear talks.
2. Federal Reserve - ① Barkin: The possible neutral interest rate estimate will slowly rise over time; tariffs will start to push up inflation. ② Goolsbee: If the inflation rate stays within the 2% range and uncertainty is resolved, the Fed will move toward rate cuts; Trump's early announcement of Powell's successor will not affect the FOMC. ③ Daly: A rate cut in the fall looks promising. ④ Collins: A rate cut in July may be premature.
3. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen requests Congress to remove the '899 retaliation tax clause.'
4. Tariffs - ① Indian officials: U.S.-India trade negotiations are at an impasse. The U.S. claims it is about to reach an agreement with them. ② Foreign media: The EU is considering lowering tariffs on U.S. imports in hopes of quickly reaching a trade agreement with the U.S. ③ White House: There are no plans to extend the tariff suspension period that ends on July 9; any changes will be decided by the President. ④ Lutnik: Optimistic about reaching a trade agreement with the EU, with multiple agreements to be announced next week. ⑤ von der Leyen states she is ready to reach an agreement with the U.S., while preparing for the possibility of not reaching an agreement. Macron says the best U.S.-EU agreement is zero tariffs on zero tariffs.
5. The EU summit failed to reach consensus on a new round of sanctions against Russia, the EU agreed to extend existing sanctions against Russia for six months.
6. The U.S. goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May, with exports experiencing the largest decline since the pandemic; first-quarter GDP data revised down.
Risk Warning
☆ 20:30, the U.S. will release the May Core PCE Price Index. The market expects a year-on-year rate of 2.60%, previous value 2.50%; expected month-on-month rate of 0.10%, previous value 0.10%;
☆ 21:15, 2026 FOMC voting member, Cleveland Fed President Mester and Fed Governor Lisa Cook will attend the 'Fed Listens' event;
☆ 22:00, the U.S. will release the final value of the June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, with market expectations set at 60.5, previous value 60.5.
$BTC
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