田文谋论趋势

周二晚间比特币以太坊行情分析及操作建议

午后行情如期回调至104500附近后虽现反弹，但老田的日内空单布局精准卡点入场。值得关注的是，日内反弹明显缺乏持续性，多头未能收获显著成果，反观我们的高空思路则延续连胜态势。

当前市场观望情绪浓厚，日内主要维持震荡调整格局。晚间行情将承接美股开盘及后续鲍威尔讲话，或引发波动。然而，老田预测其观点大概率延续前期论调，在降息时机及路径上难有明确指引，恐再现“雷声大、雨点小”的局面。但朋友们也一定要严格带好防守，现实盘处于105000一线附近来回震荡，不排除是暴风雨来临之前的宁静。

四小时级别线来看白盘多次冲击上轨均以失败告终，显示上方承压显著。币价持续围绕105000一线震荡，上下波动较快但未能突破关键位，短期方向不明。技术指标上行动能明显放缓后，下行压力陡然增大。小时级别线来看布林带袋口持续紧缩，短期区间进一步收敛，再次面临关键位突破后能否延续方向的问题。

操作建议：
短期继续延续我们高箜思路，首要关注104500支撑强度，若有效下破，则可继续顺势箜至103000一线。上方阻力关注106000，唯有强势突破该位，才可能打开上行空间至107000。
以太方面2450-2480区间箜，看2350。
#加密市场反弹

Divisions within the Federal Reserve? At the center of the storm, Powell is about to face a congressional hearing that can be called the "most difficult in history."

At 10 PM Beijing time on Tuesday and the same time on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee. This appearance is highly anticipated as he needs to explain to Congress the decision to maintain interest rates.

Less than a week ago, Federal Reserve officials decided to maintain interest rates for the fourth consecutive meeting, keeping the benchmark federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Prior to this, the U.S. attack on Iran led to a spike in oil prices and increased global economic risks, making the market more sensitive to interest rate trends.

Trump has been strongly advocating for lower borrowing costs, arguing that U.S. interest rates should be "at least two to three percentage points lower," and has called on Congress to "take action" against Powell, accusing him of making decisions that will cost the U.S. for years to come.

In Powell's prepared remarks and Q&A session, interest rates and the economy will be key topics. He is expected to follow last week's information, indicating that the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode before considering interest rate changes, wanting to gather more data as the current economy remains robust. Currently, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have not led to significant price increases or rising unemployment rates. Economists expect data this week to show that the Fed's preferred core inflation indicator rose only 0.1% in May, marking the third consecutive month of such an increase, and representing the mildest inflation growth in three months since 2020. However, two Federal Reserve governors, Waller and Bowman, believe that the impact of tariffs on prices is temporary and may support a rate cut in July, but Powell seems to see no urgency in acting on inflation trends, believing that misjudging risks is significant.

Powell's testimony in Congress not only has to contend with pressure from Trump but also must address market concerns about the direction of interest rates. His statements and positions will have a significant impact on the U.S. and global economic and financial markets, and investors and market participants are closely monitoring the signals he conveys.
#鲍威尔半年度货币政策证词

又开战了？朋友们有单子的严格止损，合理把控仓位，近日市场波动完全是受消息面影响。
#以色列伊朗冲突

In the afternoon, the Kundan thought process is being realized, the reality board has fallen below the 105,000 line. Friends, it may be time for Kundan to exit. For those who haven't joined yet, it's not suitable to chase in at this moment; continue to wait for the right opportunity. Do not forget the original intention of the expedition due to a temporary setback, and do not abandon the established journey because of a single defeat. You give me your trust, and I will lead you to victory with a systematic approach.
#加密市场反弹

Tuesday Morning Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis and Trading Suggestions

Bitcoin experienced a rebound after a brief dip last night, showcasing resilience from the bulls. The price briefly dropped before rebounding and reclaiming the 103,000 mark, reaching a high of 106,050. However, the rebound momentum faced significant resistance at key levels. In the evening, the suggestion was to look for short positions at the rebound highs. Ethereum was similarly suggested to continue looking upward. When the market trend becomes clear, we must maintain clear judgment, decisively change direction, seize entry opportunities, and secure profits in a timely manner.

On the four-hour chart, although the price experienced a temporary pullback, it has recorded three consecutive bullish candles. However, the upward movement is obstructed by the strong resistance zone at the upper Bollinger Band. The K-line bodies generally have long upper shadows, clearly indicating that bullish momentum is being hindered and starting to weaken. On the one-hour chart, despite showing a unidirectional upward trend and briefly breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, the current upward momentum has significantly slowed down. The KDJ lines have entered the overbought region and have clearly turned downward, which strongly indicates an increased risk of a short-term pullback.

The current price has reached a strong resistance area, and multiple technical indicators show that bullish strength is waning, with severe overbought conditions signaling a potential reversal. The market is facing significant pullback pressure, and it is highly likely that there will be a downturn in the future. The morning outlook primarily focuses on shorting during rebounds, and close attention should be paid to the performance of resistance levels above, seizing entry opportunities at high points and securing profits in a timely manner.

Trading Suggestions:
Bitcoin: Short in the 105,500 - 106,000 range, targeting 103,500.
Ethereum: Short in the 2,420 - 2,450 range, targeting 2,350.
#加密市场反弹 $BTC

The evening short position strategy has already provided nearly a thousand points of space; friends who have followed this strategy can gradually exit. Old Tian seems to think that the main trend is still dominated, so don't get too carried away. It's better to take small profits and exit!!!
The evening high position strategy continues, and the Ethereum offensive is relatively strong; we can sell a portion first and continue to look upwards.
#币安Alpha上新

Why is the contract liquidation rate 99%, yet some people are still crazy about sending money?
"Do you think low leverage is safe? Wrong!

90% of people can't even calculate 'real leverage'!"

You are not losing to the market, but to yourself.
Every day countless people face liquidation, but why do some continue to rush in? Because—those who get liquidated support those who make money.
Leverage is not what you think it is.
The '5x' and '10x' shown by the exchange are just the platform's risk control indicators and have nothing to do with your actual risk!
Real leverage = Your position / Your stop-loss funds.
For example, if your principal is 10,000 USDT, using 10x leverage, but your stop-loss is set to only 100 USDT, then your real leverage is actually 100x!
90% of people die in these 3 traps:
“Anti-position”
“All-in”
“Emotional averaging down”
—— You got liquidated because you gave the market the chance to kill you.

Contracts are not investments; they are a 'body-snatching' game.
Question: Whose money is actually made from contracts?
Answer: The money of those who got liquidated!
Bull market? Bear market? Doesn't matter!
You can make money whether the market goes up or down; the key is whether you can survive to the 'money-picking moment.'
Bull market: Retail investors FOMO into buying high, you short at high prices.
Bear market: Retail investors panic sell, you buy at low prices.
“Risk Manager” vs “Dreamer”
Dreamer: “This coin can increase by 100 times! Go all-in!” (Result: liquidation)
Risk Manager: “This position has a risk-reward ratio of 3:1, testing with 5% position, stop-loss is clear.” (Survive, wait for opportunities)
The secret of professional traders:
"80% of the time is in cash, 20% of the time is picking up money."
—— You are not here to trade; you are here to wait for others to make mistakes.

With the same strategy, 80% of people still lose money—because of human nature.

“If you can't control risk, don't play contracts—otherwise, you are just a 'corpse' in others' eyes.”

If you really want to make money, first learn to “not get liquidated.”
Otherwise, you will always be someone else's ATM.

The more chaotic the market,
don't operate blindly yourself!

Follow my operational thinking and let you be decisive in the crypto circle!
#加密市场回调

The current trend of Bitcoin is relatively volatile, in a technical correction phase after a decline, and lacks significant momentum for large fluctuations in the short term. After rebounding to around the 101600 line in the morning session, it fell back, confirming our short-term rebound high position strategy. Lao Tian has been emphasizing to watch the rebound first this morning, and the reminders have been given to everyone. Currently, the price has rebounded as expected, but the strength remains weak. Subsequent operations are still recommended to focus on short positions, but one must be aware of the risk of market reversal and strictly set stop-loss orders.

Trading Suggestions:
Short positions in the 101400 - 102000 range,
Short-term attention to the 100000 level,
Pay attention to the low point around 98000 from yesterday during the day.

#加密市场回调 $BTC

At three in the morning, some draw lines to count the waves; after finishing their investments, some fall asleep immediately. Some silently uninstall the APP after liquidating their positions, while others smash their keyboards in frustration when missing out. The seasoned traders, with red eyes, stare intensely at the K-line, while the new traders are immediately harvested clean upon entering the market. In the exchange, numbers jump up and down, and account balances fluctuate like a roller coaster—this is not an investment market, but clearly a testing ground for human nature. Every order placed is a battle between greed and fear; each bullish candle is marked with the imprint of "survivor bias." Here, technical analysis may fail, but human weaknesses are always present; the truth of news is hard to discern, and only position management is worth relying on. Remember: the market specializes in dealing with all forms of discontent. True winners remain calm in madness and strategize in despair.

Friends who didn't keep up with Lao Tian's short position strategy, don't worry, the second wave of short-term benefits is here! After the price of Bitcoin touched around 98600, it stopped falling and rebounded. Those who followed the strategy should have already taken profits and exited. Current market sentiment may be somewhat confused; how should one operate in the short term?

From a technical perspective: the negative impact of the fundamentals is gradually diminishing, and technical indicators are also correcting and adjusting. Short-term signs of bottoming out have emerged in smaller timeframes. Once the price breaks through and stabilizes above the lower boundary of the descending channel, a certain rebound space is expected to open up. Short-term target: the primary focus above is the 100000-101000 range. Strong resistance is seen at 101500.

Operational tips:
The current market is still dominated by bears, so caution is required when seeking short-term long position profits!
#加密市场回调