1. Hot speculation is like passing the parcel

  • Every hot cycle gives birth to a hundredfold myth, but cases like FIL and LUNA tell us: 90% of altcoins will eventually go to zero

  • Practical advice: at least recover the principal when profits reach 3-5 times, keep profits for speculation

  • Beware of the 'value investment' trap: altcoins only have speculative value, not investment value

2. The dialectics of sideways breakout

  • High-level sideways breakout:
    • Insufficient volume = baiting trap (refer to the prelude of BTC at 69,000 in 2021)
    • Volume and price rising together = trend continuation (observe if trading volume expands more than twice during the breakout)

  • Breakout from low-level sideways:
    • Spike and recovery = main force washing (e.g. SOL's $8 golden pit in 2023)
    • Continuous volume decline = trend destruction

3. The mystery of counter-trend coins

  • Strong coins in bear markets:
    • Sideways resistance = main force control (e.g. BNB performance in 2022)
    • Slight rise against the trend = subsequent explosion (needs to be verified with large on-chain transfers)

  • Weak coins in bull markets:
    • Sideways stagnation = capital fleeing (beware of the 'losing money in a bull market' phenomenon)
    • Following the downtrend but not the uptrend = project party giving up

4. The art of position management

  • Profit-increasing rules:
    • Breakthrough previous high + volume cooperation (refer to ETH's performance before the Shanghai upgrade in 2023)
    • Use the '532' scaling strategy (initial position 50%, confirm trend 30%, sprint phase 20%)

  • Loss handling principles:
    • Forced stop loss if a single coin loses over 15%
    • Never average down on losing positions (this is the fastest way for retail investors to go bankrupt)

5. The secret of trend trading

  • Three major characteristics of bottom confirmation:
    • Weekly level stabilization
    • On-chain whales continuously increasing holdings
    • Derivative funding rates turning positive

  • The 'two up, one down' in trends:
    • Healthy trend retracement not exceeding 38.2%
    • The duration of washing is usually 3-7 days (exceeding this indicates a trend change)

6. The leap of cognitive levels

  • Top players:
    • Capture sector rotation (e.g. 2023 AI sector → MEME sector → RWA sector)
    • Obtain first-hand market information through VC channels

  • Ordinary players:
    • Focus on the top 3 hot sectors on CoinMarketCap
    • Use TradingView's sector heat index

7. The truth of the volume-price relationship

  • Volume leading indicators:
    • Sudden volume increase by more than 2 times = trend change signal
    • Continuous shrinking volume with price increase = dangerous sign

  • Classic volume-price model:
    • Low-level volume breakout = best buying point
    • High-level volume stagnation = main force selling

8. Grasping the boundary between long and short

  • Upward trend:
    • Pay attention to Fibonacci 38.2% support level
    • Beware if it breaks below the 20-day moving average

  • Downward trend:
    • A rebound to previous high resistance is a short opportunity
    • Stop loss needed if it breaks the downward trend line


Remember: in this market, surviving longer is more important than making quick profits. Establishing your own trading discipline is the true moat to navigate through bulls and bears.

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