When you notice that the people around you, the group leaders in WeChat groups, or some influencers on social media are simultaneously recommending a certain coin, you need to be cautious. This often means that the chips have been dispersed and there are too many retail investors entering the market. Once the market reverses or sentiment collapses, you might find it hard to even have a chance to retreat.
For example, why do I rarely recommend specific altcoins in public? The reason is straightforward: once I say it, many people will follow suit and buy. And as long as there are too many retail investors and the chips are scattered, the main funds won't easily allow you to make money with them. They often create panic first, breaking through stop losses and cleaning up floating chips—only after washing out most people will they slowly pull the market up.
It's like there are too many people in a car; it's fine if a few people get on, and the car can run normally. But if hundreds or thousands of people all push onto the car at once, the main funds also have to consider the cost and pressure. It’s hard for them to take a group hanging on the doors and roof to climb a steep slope, so they can only leave a batch of people behind.
This also explains another phenomenon: why I now rarely publicly talk about specific entry and exit points? Because now there are more people paying attention, if everyone places their orders at the same position, the main funds are unlikely to be so 'kind' as to give you the opportunity. They might first create a wave of fluctuations to wash you out, then operate at their own pace.
Therefore, the real core is not 'where to get on the bus,' but 'can you dare to enter when others are panicking, and understand when to exit when others are greedy?'
Reverse thinking is not just about blindly 'doing the opposite,' but about seeing the true intentions and operational rhythm of the main funds. The main funds never act blindly; they specifically target places with many people and strong consensus. The more you crowd with the majority, the more likely you are to be treated as the 'cutting leek' for others.
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