1. Market meat grinder: When a Trump tweet can take away your savings.

The financial market has never been a warm and gentle arena of fame and fortune, but a battlefield where 'one general's success means thousands of bones are buried.' A 30% surge and a 50% drop in Bitcoin can happen within 48 hours, and a single tweet from Musk declaring 'Dogecoin is a scam' can cause a market cap evaporation of 20 billion—here, the rules are brutally simple: retail investors are always predicting the predictions of the big players, while the big players hold the sickle.


Data from a certain exchange shows: In the liquidation events of 2023, 78% of retail investor losses were due to 'sudden news shocks.' When you are focused on studying MACD golden crosses on the K-line, a tweet from Trump, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, or even a statement from a certain country's congressman saying 'cryptocurrency is illegal' can instantly wipe out your account.

2. The first rule of survival: Taking profits is the lifeline for retail investors.

🧨 If you are slow to withdraw, your principal is halved.

  • During the LUNA crash in 2022, 90% of retail investors who did not withdraw in time ended up with nothing;

  • A user made a profit of 150,000 when BTC rose to 60,000, but because they waited for 'higher points' without withdrawing, they ultimately gave back all their profits;

  • The iron rule of old traders: If profits exceed 50%, withdraw 30% first; if profits exceed 100%, liquidate 50%—this is not cowardice, but using a 'lifeline' to secure capital.

🔪 Don't let the numbers in your account deceive you.

How many people look at the 'floating profit' in their accounts fantasizing about financial freedom, only to lose their principal during a pullback:


  • Xiao Zhang traded cryptocurrency with 20,000 and made 100,000, wanting to wait for 150,000 to withdraw, but ended up losing 30,000 when the market turned;

  • Data shows: The probability of retail investors' accounts turning from 'floating profit to loss' is as high as 67%, while among the funds that were 'taken off the table,' 82% can preserve profits.

3. The gambler's dilemma in the economic winter: Why are we forced to walk a tightrope?

When the real economy shrinks, and unemployment at 35 becomes the norm, with mortgage and car loan pressures making it hard to breathe, how many people rush into the crypto world clutching their children's milk money:


  • A delivery guy uses a principal of 3,000 to trade cryptocurrencies, hoping to earn enough for a down payment back home;

  • A factory worker pawns her jewelry to play contracts, hoping to raise surgery fees for her seriously ill mother;

  • Behind this 'desperate struggle' is the helplessness of ordinary people under the weight of life—it's not that they want to gamble, but they see no hope except for this path.


But the reality is harsher: 90% of retail investors in the futures market go bankrupt within 3 months, hoping to earn just enough for a meal, but often end up losing their entire fortune.

4. Beware of the deadly trap of 'cost averaging.'

❌ Averaging down is not self-rescue, it's handing a rope to the abyss.

  • Wrong operation: Buying 10,000 USDT when the price is 10 USDT, and averaging down with another 10,000 USDT when it drops to 5 USDT seems to dilute the cost to 7.5 USDT;

  • Real outcome: If it continues to drop to 2 USDT and you average down with another 10,000 USDT, the total cost becomes 5.6 USDT, but by this time, the account has already lost 64%;

  • A quantitative team's backtest: Aiming to blindly average down costs leads to an average loss rate of 89% in bear markets.

✅ Correct capital management looks like this.

  1. Build positions in batches: Divide the capital into 5 parts, and buy one part for every 20% drop (e.g., buy 20% at 10 USDT and 20% at 8 USDT);

  2. Stop-loss line: If a single loss exceeds 15%, immediately cut losses (as long as the green mountain remains, there’s no fear of not having firewood);

  3. Profit withdrawal: 30% of each profit is forcibly withdrawn (using 'withdrawal' to combat greed).

5. A letter to retail investors in desperate situations.

The market will not show mercy just because you are poor; instead, it will intensify the harvesting of 'cognitive taxes.' But remember:


  • Surviving is more important than making money: Those who survived the bear market in 2018 waited until 2020 when BTC increased tenfold;

  • Don't gamble your living expenses on tomorrow: If you really want to enter the market, use money that 'losing it won't affect your life';

  • Learn to stay in cash: Staying in cash is not admitting defeat, but waiting until 80% of people are eliminated by the market, to pick up the chips they left behind.


(I have seen too many retail investors make money in a bull market, only to lose everything in a bear market. The truth of the market is: those who can take away profits are never the ones who earned the most, but those who know when to stop.)
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