ETH is confused after a rebound from a sharp drop: $2400 EMA has become a battleground for bulls and bears.

Ethereum (ETH) rebounded strongly by 10% this week back to $2400 after plummeting from $2500 to $2150 over the weekend. This price level is the key EMA support level, historically serving as a turning point for price movements.

Analyst Swallow Academy pointed out: "ETH is like standing at a crossroads - breaking above $2400 could push towards $2800, but a drop would target $2000."

The current market presents a strange stalemate: bulls are continuously applying pressure with the EMA moving averages, but geopolitical risks and the uncertainty of Federal Reserve policies hang like two swords of Damocles.

On-chain data shows that there are buy orders worth $800 million stacked around $2400, but shorts have also deployed dense sell orders at $2500, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears.

Can the bullish "3x power" deliver? Analysts bet on ETH reaching $3000.

The "PO3 theory" proposed by Mister Spread is being tested by the market: ETH has completed the accumulation phase and may enter the expansion phase after breaking out of the divergence box.

If the theory holds, ETH will challenge the $2800-$3000 supply zone within 2-4 weeks. However, this logic has a fatal flaw - if the price drops below $2100, the bullish model will completely fail.

It is worth noting that ETH's rebound is accompanied by shrinking trading volume, and this "volume-price divergence" has made some traders cautious. "Without incremental funds entering, this rebound could be a trap for retail."

An anonymous trader reminded in a Telegram group that a similar trend occurred in November 2024, followed by a 40% plunge in ETH.

WIF's critical defense battle at $0.70: The $1 resistance level serves as a litmus test for the rebound.

Memecoin leader WIF recently staged a "comeback" at $0.7, with bulls building a defense with a buy order of 30,000 ETH. However, the technicals show triple pressure:

Daily bearish structure: The high of $1.07 since June 10 has not been broken, and the downward trend remains unchanged;

Volume exhaustion: Trading volume has sharply decreased by 62% over the past 30 days, lacking upward momentum;

Indicators weakening: RSI hovers around the midline of 50, CMF cash flow is negative, and the super trend has issued a sell signal.

"Unless BTC breaks through $112,000 to boost market sentiment, it will be difficult for WIF to rise above $1." AMBCrypto analysts pointed out that historical data shows the success rate of memecoin breakthroughs during market corrections is less than 35%.

What should retail traders do?

ETH trading plan:

Breaking above $2500 can allow for light position chasing, targeting $2800;

Decisive stop loss if it breaks below $2350, watch the $2100 support.

WIF risk control:

A small position can be taken to bet on a rebound above $0.7, with a stop loss set at $0.65;

Break above $1.07 to confirm a trend reversal, otherwise reduce positions on highs.