On a macro level, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently conveyed an important signal in his speech: if trade policies are adjusted in the future, the Federal Reserve may have greater flexibility to lower interest rates. Although this viewpoint did not specify a timeline, it has released potential easing expectations to the market, becoming a key variable in macro sentiment.
In the digital asset market, institutional capital has re-emerged. According to Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich on X platform, the company recently spent approximately $132.7 million to acquire 1,234 BTC, averaging about $107,557 per coin. This publicly listed Japanese company has accumulated a total of 12,345 Bitcoins since early 2025, with a total cost of around $1.2 billion and an average purchase price of $97,036.
On the market level, the current upward trend of Bitcoin has drawn attention, with many players mistakenly believing it to be driven by significant positive news. However, comparing it with the Nasdaq index's performance reveals that Bitcoin's current price level has not returned to previous highs, only bouncing back from the June 17 dip. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq index has reached a new all-time high today, indicating that traditional risk assets are performing more strongly.
One of the reasons is that Bitcoin was affected by the tensions in the Middle East over the weekend, leading to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds; meanwhile, U.S. stocks cleverly avoided the impact due to the weekend market closure, naturally continuing their upward momentum this week. If U.S. stocks can steadily rise, Bitcoin may also break through the $110,000 barrier. However, the uncertainty in the geopolitical situation remains an important factor suppressing sentiment.
On-chain data shows that during the rise in Bitcoin's price, the turnover rate has also increased, indicating frequent short-term capital inflows and outflows. This aligns with previous trends: stable chips at low levels and accelerated circulation at high levels. Currently, short-term players dominate the market, while long-term holders generally choose to wait and see within the current price range.
Overall, this round of Bitcoin's rise is more of a technical correction rather than a structural reversal. There is a lack of significant positive drivers in the short term, coupled with limited liquidity, meaning the market could fall back at any moment due to a shift in sentiment. On the operational side, it is recommended to continue monitoring the strong support zone between $93,000 and $98,000, while the support strength between $100,500 and $105,000 is relatively insufficient, posing a risk of further decline.#比特币走势分析