$BTC Short-term analysis and operation suggestions: High-level fluctuations, respond cautiously to adjustment risks.
Market observation:
Recently, the price of $BTC has been fluctuating at a high level, with trading volume remaining low and upward momentum significantly weakening, and the accumulated pressure is gradually being released. Last night I opened a short position near 107000, and this morning the price rose to around 108200, resulting in a slight loss. The bullish counterattack is quick, but the price has not yet reached my average position, so I continue to hold the short position with a controlled risk level.
Technical analysis:
1. Candlestick patterns:
- Top reversal: High-level stagnation, initial signs of a short-term reversal.
- Three black crows: Suggests a strong downward momentum may follow.
- Engulfing pattern: Provides potential reversal signals; follow-up trends need confirmation.
2. Trading volume:
- Recent volume has shrunk, accompanied by high-level price fluctuations, and the divergence between volume and price indicates cautious market sentiment, lacking breakthrough momentum.
3. Moving average analysis:
- The short-term moving average (MA7) is rising more slowly, approaching the long-term moving average (MA30).
- After a high-level stagnation, attention should be paid to the price's pullback to the support level of MA30.
Key levels
- Buy point: 107003.1 USDT (close to the key support level; if the price pulls back here and shows a rebound signal, consider opening a long position at a lower level).
Long stop-loss: 106544.7 USDT (if the price falls below this level, a short-term downtrend may be confirmed).
- Sell point: 108095.7 USDT (close to the previous high resistance level, selling pressure risk is high).
- Short stop-loss: 108249.9 USDT (if it breaks through the recent high, the short position should stop-loss and exit).
Operation suggestion:
1. For those holding long positions:
- In the short term, it is not recommended to chase long positions; look for opportunities to reduce positions near the resistance level of 108000.
- If the price falls below the key support level of 107003.1, consider liquidating and stop-loss.
2. For those without positions and prefer long positions:
- Wait for the price to stabilize near 106544.7 and confirm a rebound signal before considering opening a long position, with the stop-loss set below 105900.
3. For those with a strong bearish preference:
- You can try shorting with light positions at the current high level (around 108000), watch for resistance at 108249.9, and aim for 107003.1 or lower.
- If the price rises further to 108800, this is a strong pressure level for both bulls and bears; you can attempt to short again while strictly controlling your position.
Personal trading sharing:
Last night I shorted near 107000 and am still holding the position, controlling the position size and building it in batches to reduce risk. Although market sentiment is leaning towards a bullish 110,000, I choose to trade against the trend, as I see more adjustment space in the short term. I suggest everyone operate cautiously according to their own risk preference and combine technical signals to avoid blindly chasing highs.
Risk warning:
The market is highly volatile; operations must strictly set stop-losses, control position sizes, and build positions in batches to reduce risk. Closely monitor the trend in the range of 106544.7-108249.9 and make dynamic adjustments.
