When the trading volume of stablecoins crushes BTC and ETH, the game rules of the crypto market have changed — this is not a technological revolution, but an on-chain expansion of 'dollar hegemony'!
Recently, a piece of data exploded — since June, the daily trading volume of stablecoins (like USDT, USDC) has actually surpassed that of Bitcoin and Ethereum! Even more explosive, Standard Chartered predicts: within three years, stablecoin issuers may become the second-largest buyers of US Treasuries (second only to the Federal Reserve).
What does this mean? The cryptocurrency market is turning into the 'on-chain colony' of the US dollar, and this transformation will affect everyone who trades coins, hoards coins, or plays DeFi.
1. Why can stablecoins 'counterattack' BTC and ETH?
Anna's tearful case: When you play contracts, rush to meme coins, or even buy NFTs, don't you mostly use USDT or USDC for pricing? This is the key — stablecoins have become the 'universal gasoline' of the crypto world, while BTC and ETH are more like 'collectibles' or 'equities', highly volatile and with high fees, ordinary people prefer to use stablecoins as a medium of exchange.
My viewpoint:
Short-term benefits: Large trading volume in stablecoins indicates an active market, and the entry barrier for newcomers is low (no need to directly deal with the high volatility of BTC).
Long-term hidden dangers: If all transactions rely on USDT/USDC, then the lifeblood of the crypto world is actually in the hands of companies like Tether and Circle (and US regulation), decentralization has become a joke.
2. What impact does the crazy buying of US Treasury bonds by stablecoin issuers have on the crypto world?
Standard Chartered's prediction is not nonsense — Tether (the issuer of USDT) currently holds over a hundred billion in US Treasuries, more than many central banks. If this trend continues, three years from now, they may only be second to the Federal Reserve as the second-largest player in the US Treasury market.
This means:
US Treasury yield decline: Stablecoin issuers are frantically buying US Treasuries, which is equivalent to indirectly helping the US government suppress interest rates, and the Federal Reserve is secretly laughing.
Black swan risk: If a debt crisis erupts in the US (for example, a collapse in US Treasuries), the reserve assets of USDT/USDC may shrink, causing panic withdrawals (refer to the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse, where USDC briefly decoupled).
My viewpoint:
A double-edged sword for retail investors: Stablecoins are more stable, but you must also be wary of the issuer's collapse (for example, if Tether is sanctioned by the US one day).
An opportunity for institutions: Large funds will feel more secure entering the market, as stablecoins have become a 'compliant dollar channel', the next narrative after ETFs may be 'stablecoin banks'.
3. What will the future look like? Regulation, competition, and the survival game.
Anna's tearful experience: Last year, PayPal issued PYUSD, this year Ripple said it would create stablecoins, and even Visa has started using USDC for settlements — traditional giants are 'legally invading' the stablecoin market.
My prediction:
Regulatory iron fist must come: The US will certainly force stablecoin issuers to disclose their reserves, and even restrict them from buying too many US Treasuries.
New stablecoin war:
USDT/USDC continues to dominate, but may face taxation or restrictions.
Decentralized stablecoins (like DAI, FRAX) have the opportunity to rise, but need to solve collateral risk.
Survival rules for retail investors:
Don't stash all your money in stablecoins (especially high-interest savings from small exchanges, refer to the 8% USDT interest scam before the FTX collapse).
Pay attention to the US Treasury market; if yields plummet, it may signal the end of the 'risk-free return' era for USDT/USDC.
When stablecoins become puppets of US Treasury bonds, will you choose to continue lying back and earning interest, or will you layout plans for decentralized alternatives in advance? Follow me, next issue will reveal:
If USDT collapses, which stablecoins can survive?
How can ordinary people arbitrage with stablecoins and avoid black swan events?$ETH #香港加密概念股