"The market is always brewing opportunities in fluctuations, and this wave of XRP's rally today, is it the main force drawing lines or a trend reversal? The key depends on these two signals!"
Technical aspect: Bull-bear game, key positions determine the outcome
From the 1-hour candlestick chart, XRP/USDT is currently fluctuating around the 2.1800-2.1900 range. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands (BOLL) at 2.1522 provides short-term support, while the upper line at 2.1832 becomes the first resistance today.
Fibonacci key levels:
0.0% resistance (2.2293): Briefly touched in the morning session and then retreated, indicating heavy selling pressure here.
23.6% support (2.1532): If it does not break on a pullback, it can still be seen as bullish in the short term.
61.8% defense level (2.0301): If it breaks below, the trend turns bearish.
MACD indicator:
DIF (-0.0002) and DEA (-0.0036) are still below the zero axis, but the histogram has turned red (0.0068), indicating increased short-term buying pressure, but momentum is insufficient, so beware of false breakouts.
Anna's viewpoint:
"This wave of rally seems more like a 'news-driven' rebound rather than a trend reversal. Referring to the trend on June 20, XRP plunged after multiple false breakouts around 2.2000. If it cannot hold 2.1832 (Bollinger upper band) today, it is likely to repeat history."
News: Ripple dynamics + market sentiment boost
Ripple lawsuit progress:
This morning, foreign media reported that the SEC might delay a key ruling in the Ripple case, leading some investors to bet on positive outcomes, pushing XRP to a temporary spike.
If there is no substantial progress this week, the gains may be given back.
On-chain data anomalies:
Whale address transferred 5 million XRP (about 11 million USD) to the exchange one hour ago, be cautious of the dumping risk.
The funding rate in the derivatives market has turned positive, but extreme long leverage has not appeared, indicating that the market remains cautious.
"At the beginning of June, XRP surged 10% due to rumors of 'Ripple cooperating with a central bank,' but once the news was debunked, it quickly fell back to square one. Today's trend is similar—ambiguous news, increased volatility, retail investors easily chase high prices and get trapped."
Anna believes: Keep an eye on these two signals
Short term (1-3 days):
Break above 2.1832: light positions to chase long, target 2.2000-2.2200.
Break below 2.1532: stop-loss and wait for low absorption opportunities near 2.0301.
Medium term (1 week):
If it holds above 2.2000, you can lay out spot positions, betting on positive SEC news.
If it breaks below 2.0301 with volume, the trend turns bearish, and risks need to be avoided.
XRP is extremely volatile; do not heavily bet on a single direction! Leverage recommendation ≤5 times, and set hard stop-loss (e.g., -5%).
"Do you think this operation of XRP today is 'the bull returns swiftly' or 'local folks, don't run'? Feel free to share your positions and strategies in the comments section. The friend with the most likes will receive a free (XRP main trading tactics revealed)!"