"In the crypto world, a day equals a year in the real world. A big bullish candle in the morning, and thousands of troops come to meet!" This morning ETH suddenly surged violently, peaking at 2474.11 USDT, causing many shorts to get liquidated and leaving those who missed out regretting. But is the market really stable now? Is the golden cross a bull signal or a trap for the greedy? Let's analyze it clearly by combining the latest news and technical aspects!

Behind the Surge: Driven by both technical and news factors

  1. Technical Aspects: Golden cross + BOLL breakout, but hidden risks

    • MACD Golden Cross: This morning, DIF crossed DEA to form a golden cross. According to historical patterns, after a golden cross, a short-term surge is possible, but a retracement is highly likely (red text in the chart reminds you).

    • BOLL Middle Track Battle: After the price broke the middle track at 2369, it approached the upper track at 2508, but the upper track pressure is evident. After a morning surge, it quickly fell back, indicating heavy selling pressure above 2500.

    • Volume Key: Although the chart does not show trading volume, combined with on-chain data, the morning surge was accompanied by large buy orders, suspected institutional accumulation, but retail participation was insufficient, leaving the sustainability in doubt.

  2. News: Vitalik updates + ETF fund inflow

    • Vitalik's Late Night Tweet: Early morning, Vitalik mentioned 'Ethereum L3 testnet's progress exceeds expectations', which the market interpreted as an acceleration in scaling, positively impacting the Layer2 ecosystem (such as OP, ARB).

    • ETF Funds Continued Inflow: BlackRock's spot ETH ETF saw a net inflow of $120 million in a single day (Farside data), showing clear signs of institutional accumulation at lower prices.

    • Macroeconomic Assist: Federal Reserve officials hint at 'possible rate cut in September', US stocks rebound driving a recovery in risk appetite in the crypto market.

Anna's View: Beware of 'golden cross traps', here's how to operate in the short term

  • Case Reference: A golden cross appeared again on June 18, ETH peaked at 2400 and then retraced 8% within three days. Will history repeat itself this time?

    My Strategy:

    1. Short-term: If the price stabilizes above 2450, consider a light position for a rebound, target 2500-2520; set a stop-loss below 2430 to prevent false breakouts.

    2. Medium-term: Focus on the 2360 support (BOLL middle track), if it retraces without breaking, consider gradual positioning; if it breaks, wait for 2230 (lower track) to buy the dip.

    3. Hedging: Buy 2300 put options (1-week expiry) to hedge against black swan risks.

Future Focus: Keep an eye on these 3 signals

  1. ETF Fund Flow: If there is a net inflow for three consecutive days, it confirms the medium-term bottom; otherwise, beware of 'buy exhaustion'.

  2. On-chain Whale Movements: Glassnode shows the top 10 addresses increased their holdings by 120,000 ETH. If this accumulation continues, a bull market is expected.

  3. Policy Risk: The SEC may have new developments regarding ETH's security classification in July, and a sudden negative surprise could crash the market.

"Markets are born in despair, rise in hesitation, and die in euphoria — which stage are you in now?" Feel free to share your holdings in the comments; if likes exceed 100, I will provide a detailed live explanation of the bottom-buying points tomorrow!

Opportunities to make money have always existed, it just depends on whether you can seize this moment. However, the prerequisite is to learn to identify technical and news-based principles as the basis for building positions. If you don’t know how to distinguish, you can follow Anna's profile, where she teaches step-by-step.