1. Market Observation
Keywords: BNB, ETH, BTC
The macro environment is showing a positive shift. The news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has significantly eased geopolitical tensions, boosting market risk appetite, with oil prices falling back to pre-conflict levels and gold briefly dropping below $3,300. In this context, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released key signals during his congressional testimony: although he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, he emphasized the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting it is more likely to wait until the September meeting to decide on policy shifts. He admitted that if inflationary pressures are controlled, he would "cut rates sooner rather than later", but the current robust economy does not require hasty action, also noting that tariff uncertainty is the main reason to delay rate cuts. This statement was interpreted by the market as dovish, combined with the easing geopolitical risks, driving a broad rise in US stocks—the Nasdaq 100 hit a historic high, and the Dow Jones soared 500 points in a single day, while US Treasury yields and the dollar fell in tandem.
In terms of regulation, HashKey's chief analyst Jeffrey Ding stated that Coinbase is seeking approval from the US SEC to launch tokenized stock trading services. Tokenized stocks can achieve T+0 settlement, low thresholds, lower costs, and all-day trading. If the plan is approved, Coinbase will use blockchain technology to enter the stock trading field, further blurring the lines between traditional brokerages and crypto platforms, challenging the positions of traditional internet brokers like Robinhood. Additionally, the SEC's new management has shown a change in its regulatory attitude towards the crypto industry, not only withdrawing lawsuits against multiple crypto companies but also establishing a crypto working group to formulate digital asset regulations. Jeffrey Ding believes that the US may gradually accept tokenized stock services in the future, paving the way for the application of blockchain technology in traditional stock trading while providing investors with more diversified and flexible trading options.
Bitcoin broke $106,000 under macro positive conditions, but its performance was relatively restrained. The founder of 10x Research stated that Bitcoin's 13% increase year-to-date contrasts sharply with the over $63 billion fund inflow, reflecting market caution towards structural changes. Analyst Murphy observed that the concentration of chips within a 5% range of the current Bitcoin spot price has reached 14.5%. He pointed out that once the concentration breaks 15%, the market may see significant volatility. On the technical analysis front, several technical analysts provided similar short-term predictions for Bitcoin, with EliZ pointing out that the price may consolidate at the current level. If it breaks $107,000, it may aim for $110,000; otherwise, it may fall below $102,000. AlphaBTC and Open4profit both believe that Bitcoin may briefly test $107,000 before quickly retreating to test the liquidity in the $104,000 to $105,000 range.
Regarding Ethereum, CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha stated that on June 23, a large-scale fund withdrawal occurred on the Binance platform, with over 4,000 BTC and 61,000 ETH flowing out of the platform, indicating that trader sentiment may have shifted from short-term speculation to a long-term holding strategy. Analysis from Swissblock further pointed out that as the fund rotation pattern shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may see significant increases, as its profit supply ratio is far lower than that of Bitcoin, indicating potential for catch-up. Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly also noted that ETH is quickly approaching $2,500, with significantly increased buying interest, and a dragonfly doji reversal signal has appeared. However, Marcel Pechman presented a contrasting view, suggesting that the ETH price has failed to break $3,000 for over 20 weeks, damaging market confidence and facing fierce competition from public chains like Solana, making it difficult to return above $3,000 in the short term. Finally, analyst Man of Bitcoin provided specific Fibonacci target levels, suggesting that ETH's upward targets are at $2,475 and $2,565, while support levels are around $2,331 and $2,155.
In the market, Solana's official account interacted with KOL Ansem, leading to the meme coin $solami, which quickly reached a market cap of $12 million before dropping to $5.3 million; $ACID was developed by a team under the Alchemist AI Foundation, quickly reaching a market cap of $18 million based on the concept of 'cross-Web2 and Web3 intelligent agents'. It claims that former OpenAI members participated in its development, and the mechanism of 20% token distribution to holders attracted follow-up funding. The market cap of $TECH reached a maximum of $3.4 million, currently at $1.45 million. It is reported that the meme 'Technologia' originates from a video in October 2024, in which two Arab men excitedly shout 'Technologia' as the rear seat of a car rises.
In addition, traditional financial layouts in the crypto space have accelerated. US stock company Nano Labs announced the acquisition of BNB as a strategic reserve through $500 million in convertible bonds, aiming to hold 5%-10% of BNB's circulating supply, which pushed the stock price to soar 150% in a single day. Meanwhile, a breakthrough in the Hong Kong market is that Guotai Junan International has obtained a comprehensive virtual asset license, becoming the first Chinese-funded brokerage to provide mainstream coin trading services. This news stimulated its Hong Kong stock price to exceed a maximum increase of 100% during intraday trading, also driving related company Huamao Co., Ltd. to rise by more than 8%.
2. Key Data (as of June 25, 12:00 HKT)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $106,202 (up 13.61% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $27.86 billion
Ethereum: $2,429.84 (down 27.09% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $15.253 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.05 sat/vB ETH: 3.12 Gwei
Market share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, SEI, NEWT, BTC, ETH
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0751
Sector rise and fall: AI down 3.45%; NFT sector down 2.83%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79,735 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $187 million, including BTC liquidation of $34.3663 million, ETH liquidation of $68.176 million, SEI liquidation of $6.9476 million
BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($105,782.52), lower channel line ($103,687.82)
ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($2,485.15), lower channel line ($2,435.94)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF flow (as of June 24)
Bitcoin ETF: +$589 million (net inflow for 11 consecutive days)
Ethereum ETF: +$71.2379 million
4. Today's Outlook
Binance: H contracts and Alpha trading are scheduled to open at 17:30 and 17:00 on June 25 respectively
The Kroma L2 network will shut down on June 26, and $KRO needs to migrate to Ethereum
Binance will launch Sahara AI (SAHARA) on June 26
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee regarding the semi-annual monetary policy report. (June 25, 22:00)
Venom (VENOM) will unlock about 59.26 million tokens at 4 PM on June 25, accounting for 2.84% of the current circulating supply, worth about $10 million;
AltLayer (ALT) will unlock about 240 million tokens at 6 PM on June 25, accounting for 6.83% of the current circulating supply, worth about $6.7 million;
IOTA (IOTA) will unlock about 15.16 million tokens at 8 AM on June 25, accounting for 0.39% of the current circulating supply, worth about $2.3 million;
Velo (VELO) will unlock about 182 million tokens at 8 AM on June 26, accounting for 2.47% of the current circulating supply, worth about $2.1 million;
Blast (BLAST) will unlock about 10.5 billion tokens at 10 PM on June 26, accounting for 34.98% of the current circulating supply, worth about $22.5 million;
Undeads Games (UDS) will unlock about 2.15 million tokens at 8 AM on June 26, accounting for 2.13% of the current circulating supply, worth about $2.3 million;
Today's top 500 market cap gainers: NEM (XEM) up 59.74%, Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) up 42.31%, Pundi AI (PUNDIAI) up 21.51%, Maple Finance (SYRUP) up 18.45%, Apu Apustaja (APU) up 15.91%.
5. Hot News
"The 'three battles ETH 100% win rate giant whale' added to ETH short positions again in the early hours, currently valued at $122 million"
SharpLink Gaming increased its holdings of 12,207 ETH by $30.67 million, raising total holdings to 188,478 ETH
Nano Labs announced a $500 million convertible note private placement for BNB strategic reserves, with Nano Labs' stock price rising over 150%
Binance will launch the 25th HODLer airdrop project: Sahara AI (SAHARA)
ProCap spent $387 million to acquire 3,724 Bitcoins
The Texas state government will allocate $10 million for Bitcoin purchases
Trump again urged Powell: should cut interest rates by at least 2 to 3 percentage points
Upbit will launch trading pairs for Newton (NEWT) in KRW, BTC, and USDT
Grayscale Space and Time (SXT) trust registered in Delaware
Celestia co-founder: has over $100 million in funds reserved, sufficient to support operations for over 6 years
Suspected ConsenSys-related addresses purchased another 3,704 ETH, valued at $8.91 million
This article is supported by HashKey, HashKey Exchange is Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted crypto asset fiat gateway, committed to defining a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform protection.
